Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 09200 Moulis, France;
Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 09200 Moulis, France.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Feb 27;115(9):2156-2161. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1710352115. Epub 2018 Feb 13.
The study of ecological communities often involves detailed simulations of complex networks. However, our empirical knowledge of these networks is typically incomplete and the space of simulation models and parameters is vast, leaving room for uncertainty in theoretical predictions. Here we show that a large fraction of this space of possibilities exhibits generic behaviors that are robust to modeling choices. We consider a wide array of model features, including interaction types and community structures, known to generate different dynamics for a few species. We combine these features in large simulated communities, and show that equilibrium diversity, functioning, and stability can be predicted analytically using a random model parameterized by a few statistical properties of the community. We give an ecological interpretation of this "disordered" limit where structure fails to emerge from complexity. We also demonstrate that some well-studied interaction patterns remain relevant in large ecosystems, but their impact can be encapsulated in a minimal number of additional parameters. Our approach provides a powerful framework for predicting the outcomes of ecosystem assembly and quantifying the added value of more detailed models and measurements.
生态群落的研究通常涉及对复杂网络的详细模拟。然而,我们对这些网络的经验知识通常是不完整的,模拟模型和参数的空间是巨大的,这使得理论预测存在不确定性。在这里,我们表明,在这个可能性的空间中,很大一部分表现出了对建模选择具有鲁棒性的通用行为。我们考虑了广泛的模型特征,包括相互作用类型和群落结构,这些特征已知会导致少数物种产生不同的动力学。我们将这些特征组合在大型模拟群落中,并表明使用由群落的几个统计特性参数化的随机模型,可以对平衡多样性、功能和稳定性进行分析预测。我们对这种“无序”极限给出了生态解释,在这种极限中,结构无法从复杂性中产生。我们还证明了一些研究充分的相互作用模式在大型生态系统中仍然是相关的,但是它们的影响可以用少量额外的参数来概括。我们的方法为预测生态系统组装的结果提供了一个强大的框架,并量化了更详细的模型和测量的附加价值。