Implications of Measurement Assay Type in Design of HIV Experiments.

Time series measurements of circular viral episome (2-LTR) concentrations enable indirect quantification of persistent low-level Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) replication in patients on Integrase-Inhibitor intensified Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART). In order to determine the magnitude of these low level infection events, blood has to be drawn from a patients at a frequency and volume that is strictly regulated by the Institutional Review Board (IRB). Once the blood is drawn, the 2-LTR concentration is determined by quantifying the amount of HIV DNA present in the sample via a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) assay. Real time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) is a widely used method of performing PCR; however, a newer droplet digital Polymerase Chain Reaction (ddPCR) method has been shown to provide more accurate quantification of DNA. Using a validated model of HIV viral replication, this paper demonstrates the importance of considering DNA quantification assay type when optimizing experiment design conditions. Experiments are optimized using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to locate a family of suboptimal sample schedules which yield the highest fitness. Fitness is defined as the expected information gained in the experiment, measured by the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between the prior and posterior distributions of the model parameters. We compare the information content of the optimized schedules to uniform schedules as well as two clinical schedules implemented by researchers at UCSF and the University of Melbourne. This work shows that there is a significantly greater gain information in experiments using a ddPCR assay vs. a qPCR assay and that certain experiment design considerations should be taken when using either assay.