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参与选举过程:标度律与政治立场的作用

Engagement in the electoral processes: scaling laws and the role of political positions.

作者信息

Mantovani M C, Ribeiro H V, Lenzi E K, Picoli S, Mendes R S

机构信息

Departamento de Física and National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Avenida Colombo 5790, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil and Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná, Campus Campo Mourão, 87301-006 Campo Mourão, Paraná, Brazil.

出版信息

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2013 Aug;88(2):024802. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.88.024802. Epub 2013 Aug 26.

Abstract

We report on a statistical analysis of the engagement in the electoral processes of all Brazilian cities by considering the number of party memberships and the number of candidates for mayor and councillor. By investigating the relationships between the number of party members and the population of voters, we have found that the functional forms of these relationships are well described by sublinear power laws (allometric scaling) surrounded by a multiplicative log-normal noise. We have observed that this pattern is quite similar to those we previously reported for the relationships between the number of candidates (mayor and councillor) and population of voters [Europhys. Lett. 96, 48001 (2011)], suggesting that similar universal laws may be ruling the engagement in the electoral processes. We also note that the power-law exponents display a clear hierarchy, where the more influential is the political position the smaller is the value of the exponent. We have also investigated the probability distributions of the number of candidates (mayor and councillor), party memberships, and voters. The results indicate that the most influential positions are characterized by distributions with very short tails, while less influential positions display an intermediate power-law decay before showing an exponential-like cutoff. We discuss the possibility that, in addition to the political power of the position, limitations in the number of available seats can also be connected with this changing of behavior. We further believe that our empirical findings point out to an under-representation effect, where the larger the city is, the larger are the obstacles for more individuals to become directly engaged in the electoral process.

摘要

我们通过考虑政党成员数量以及市长和市议员候选人数量,对巴西所有城市的选举参与情况进行了统计分析。通过研究党员数量与选民数量之间的关系,我们发现这些关系的函数形式可以用次线性幂律(异速生长缩放)很好地描述,周围伴有乘性对数正态噪声。我们观察到,这种模式与我们之前报道的候选人(市长和市议员)数量与选民数量之间的关系模式非常相似[《欧洲物理快报》96, 48001 (2011)],这表明类似的普遍规律可能在支配选举参与情况。我们还注意到,幂律指数呈现出明显的层级结构,政治地位越有影响力,指数值越小。我们还研究了候选人(市长和市议员)数量、政党成员数量和选民数量的概率分布。结果表明,最有影响力的职位的特征是分布的尾部非常短,而影响力较小的职位在呈现指数型截止之前显示出中间的幂律衰减。我们讨论了这样一种可能性,即除了职位的政治权力外,可用席位数量的限制也可能与这种行为变化有关。我们进一步认为,我们的实证研究结果指出了一种代表性不足的效应,即城市越大,更多人直接参与选举过程的障碍就越大。

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