Department of Political Science, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Feb 14;120(7):e2217323120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2217323120. Epub 2023 Feb 6.
In the first two decades of the twenty-first century, many American state governments implemented voter identification (ID) laws for elections held in their states. These laws, which commonly mandate photo ID and/or require significant effort by voters lacking ID, sparked an ongoing national debate over the tension between election security and access in a democratic society. The laws' proponents-primarily politicians in the Republican Party-claim that they prevent voter fraud, while Democratic opponents denounce the disproportionate burden they place on historically disadvantaged groups such as the poor and people of color. While these positions may reflect sincerely held beliefs, they also align with the political parties' rational electoral strategies because the groups most likely to be disenfranchised by the laws tend to support Democratic candidates. Are these partisan views on the impact of voter ID correct? Existing research focuses on how voter ID laws affect voter turnout and fraud. But the extent to which they produce observable electoral benefits for Republican candidates and/or penalize Democrats remains an open question. We examine how voter ID impacts the parties' electoral fortunes in races at the state level (state legislatures and governorships) and federal level (United States Congress and president) during 2003 to 2020. Our results suggest negligible average effects but with some heterogeneity over time. The first laws implemented produced a Democratic advantage, which weakened to near zero after 2012. We conclude that voter ID requirements motivate and mobilize supporters of both parties, ultimately mitigating their anticipated effects on election results.
在 21 世纪的头二十年，许多美国州政府在本州举行的选举中实施了选民身份识别（ID）法。这些法律通常要求选民提供照片 ID，并/或要求没有 ID 的选民付出大量努力，引发了一场关于民主社会选举安全与准入之间紧张关系的持续全国性辩论。这些法律的支持者——主要是共和党中的政治家——声称，这些法律可以防止选民欺诈，而民主党反对者则谴责这些法律给历史上处于不利地位的群体，如穷人和有色人种，带来了不成比例的负担。虽然这些立场可能反映了真诚的信念，但它们也与政党的理性选举策略相一致，因为最有可能因这些法律而失去选举权的群体往往支持民主党候选人。这些关于选民 ID 影响的党派观点是否正确？现有研究侧重于选民 ID 法如何影响选民投票率和欺诈行为。但这些法律在多大程度上为共和党候选人带来可观察到的选举优势，以及对民主党造成多大程度的惩罚，仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。我们研究了选民 ID 如何影响 2003 年至 2020 年期间州一级（州议会和州长职位）和联邦一级（美国国会和总统职位）的党派选举命运。我们的结果表明，平均影响可以忽略不计，但随着时间的推移存在一定的异质性。第一批实施的法律产生了有利于民主党的影响，但到 2012 年后，这种影响减弱到接近于零。我们的结论是，选民 ID 要求激励并动员了两党的支持者，最终减轻了它们对选举结果的预期影响。
