Rodríguez Jorge P, Liang Yu-Hao, Huang Yu-Jhe, Juang Jonq
Instituto de Física Interdisciplinary Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chiao Tung University, 300 Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Chaos. 2018 Feb;28(2):023107. doi: 10.1063/1.4996807.
We propose a fully cooperative coinfection model in which singly infected individuals are more likely to acquire a second disease than susceptible ones and doubly infected individuals are also assumed to be more contagious than singly infected ones. The dynamics of such a fully cooperative coinfection model is investigated through the well-mixed approach. In particular, discontinuous outbreak transitions from the disease free state or the low prevalence state to the high prevalence state can be separately observed as a disease transmission rate crosses a threshold α from the below when the epidemic is still in the early stages. Moreover, discontinuous eradications from the high prevalence state to the low prevalence or disease free state are also separately seen as the transmission rate reaches a threshold α(<α) from the above when the outbreak occurs. Such phenomena constitute three types of hysteresis, where only one type has been identified before. Complete characterization of these three types of hysteresis in terms of parameters measuring the uniformity of the model is both analytically and numerically provided.
我们提出了一种完全合作的共感染模型，其中，与易感个体相比，单重感染个体更有可能感染第二种疾病，并且假设双重感染个体比单重感染个体更具传染性。通过充分混合的方法研究了这种完全合作共感染模型的动态变化。特别地，当疫情仍处于早期阶段时，随着疾病传播率从下方越过阈值α，可分别观察到从无病状态或低流行状态到高流行状态的不连续爆发转变。此外，当爆发发生时，随着传播率从上方达到阈值α（<α），也可分别观察到从高流行状态到低流行或无病状态的不连续根除。这些现象构成了三种类型的滞后现象，其中只有一种类型之前已被识别。从测量模型均匀性的参数方面，对这三种类型的滞后现象进行了完整的解析和数值表征。
