1971 年至 2037 年英格兰食管腺癌和鳞状细胞癌的趋势和预测。
Trends and projections in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus in England from 1971 to 2037.
机构信息
Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, Great Maze Pond, London, SE1 9RT, UK.
Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK.
出版信息
Br J Cancer. 2018 May;118(10):1391-1398. doi: 10.1038/s41416-018-0047-4. Epub 2018 Mar 22.
BACKGROUND
The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and trends of oesophageal adenocarcinomas (OACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) in England from 1971 to 2037.
METHODS
Data on 220,026 oesophageal cancers diagnosed in England between 1971 and 2013 were extracted. Multiple imputation was used to predict morphology data were missing. Incidence rates were modelled and extrapolated to 2037 using age-period-cohort models.
RESULTS
The OAC age-standardised incidence rate (ASRs) increase was greatest from 1972 to 1992 (from 4.8 to 12.3 for men and 1.1 to 3 per 100,000 for women) and slowed from 1992 to 2012 (with an increase to 17 for men and 3.8 per 100,000 for women). OSCCs rates decreased from 7.5 to 4.9 from 1972 to 2012 for men. For women, ASRs increased from 5.5 to 5.9 between 1972 and 1992 and then decreased to 4.7 per 100,000 until 2012. Rates until 2032 are predicted to stay stable for OACs and further decrease for OSCCs.
CONCLUSIONS
Imputing missing morphology allowed accurate and up-to-date estimates of trends and projections. We observed a slowing down of the increase in OAC ASRs and an overall decrease in OSCC ASRs.
背景
本研究旨在评估英格兰 1971 年至 2037 年期间食管腺癌（OAC）和食管鳞状细胞癌（OSCC）的发病率和趋势。
方法
提取了英格兰 1971 年至 2013 年间诊断出的 220026 例食管癌数据。使用多重插补法预测形态学数据缺失情况。使用年龄-时期-队列模型对发病率进行建模并外推至 2037 年。
结果
OAC 的年龄标准化发病率（ASR）从 1972 年至 1992 年增加最快（男性从 4.8 增加到 12.3，女性从 1.1 增加到 3/10 万），从 1992 年至 2012 年减缓（男性增加到 17，女性增加到 3.8/10 万）。男性 OSCC 发病率从 1972 年至 2012 年从 7.5 降至 4.9。对于女性，1972 年至 1992 年 ASR 从 5.5 增加到 5.9，然后降至 4.7/10 万，直至 2012 年。预计到 2032 年，OAC 的发病率将保持稳定，OSCC 的发病率将进一步下降。
结论
缺失形态学数据的插补可准确、及时地估计趋势和预测。我们观察到 OAC 的 ASR 增长率放缓，OSCC 的 ASR 总体下降。
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