Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Int J Cancer. 2022 Feb 1;150(3):420-430. doi: 10.1002/ijc.33836. Epub 2021 Oct 16.
In Western populations, the incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has been declining, whereas the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) has been increasing. Our study examines temporal trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2016, in addition to predicting future trends through 2041. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands were collected to obtain incidence trends of OSCC and OAC for the period 1989 to 2016. Age-period-cohort (APC) modelling was used to estimate the contribution of age, calendar period and birth cohort on the observed incidence trends. To predict the future numbers of new cases of both OSCC and OAC from 2017 to 2041, log-linear APC models were fitted to the trends of 1989 to 2016. The age-standardised incidence rates of OSCC have decreased slightly for men and increased slightly for women. In contrast, a marked increase in the incidence of OAC was observed, ranging from 2.8 per 100 000 persons in 1989 to 10.1 in 2016. This increase in OAC incidence was more prominent in men, and it will result in an increased risk of OAC for successive generations. Future projections indicate that the incidence of OAC will further increase to 13.1 per 100 000 persons in 2037 to 2041, meaning that there will be 13 259 cases of OAC in 2037 to 2041, as compared to 9386 diagnoses in 2017 to 2021. The changing epidemiologic trends in oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands should be reflected in the development of prevention, early detection and treatment strategies.
在西方人群中,食管鳞状细胞癌(OSCC)的发病率一直在下降,而食管腺癌(OAC)的发病率则一直在上升。本研究考察了 1989 年至 2016 年期间荷兰食管癌发病率的时间趋势,并通过预测至 2041 年的未来趋势来探讨这一变化趋势。本研究从荷兰癌症登记处和荷兰统计局收集数据,以获得 1989 年至 2016 年 OSCC 和 OAC 的发病率趋势。使用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型来估计年龄、日历时期和出生队列对观察到的发病率趋势的贡献。为了预测 2017 年至 2041 年 OSCC 和 OAC 的新发病例数,我们将 1989 年至 2016 年的趋势拟合到对数线性 APC 模型中。男性 OSCC 的年龄标准化发病率略有下降,女性略有上升。相比之下,OAC 的发病率则显著上升,从 1989 年的每 10 万人 2.8 例上升至 2016 年的 10.1 例。这种 OAC 发病率的上升在男性中更为明显,这将导致后代患 OAC 的风险增加。未来的预测表明,OAC 的发病率将进一步上升至 2037 年至 2041 年的每 10 万人 13.1 例,这意味着在 2037 年至 2041 年期间,将有 13259 例 OAC,而在 2017 年至 2021 年期间,将有 9386 例诊断。荷兰食管癌的这种不断变化的流行病学趋势应该反映在预防、早期发现和治疗策略的制定上。