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为新西兰奶制品行业的生物安保风险制定优先排序框架。

Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry.

机构信息

Epi-interactive, Wellington, New Zealand.

DairyNZ, Hamilton, New Zealand.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2018 Aug;65(4):1067-1077. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12848. Epub 2018 Mar 25.

Abstract

The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms.

摘要

新西兰乳制品行业依赖强大的生物安全措施来控制和减轻对该行业的各种威胁。为了优化生物安全风险评估,以透明和可信的方式管理它们对该行业构成的风险,制定了乳制品生物安全风险评估框架(D-BRiEF)。该综合框架是专门为决策支持而设计的,采用标准化方法来应对该行业面临的全方位生物安全威胁,包括外来和地方性动物疾病生物、有害植物和昆虫。D-BRiEF 由三个主要流程支撑,即(i)危害识别;(ii)多标准风险评估;(iii)风险管理沟通。以标准化格式利用专业知识和经验数据,包括相关不确定性。结果输入概率影响模型,该模型是与乳制品行业经济学家密切合作开发的,可提供对每个评估风险生物的 10 年总体比较定量经济影响估计。本文介绍了适用于不同生物群体的总体框架,并详细介绍了地方性和外来动物疾病风险生物的方法。虽然由于行业机密性,没有报告实际的排名结果,但包含了可视化输出的示例。D-BRiEF 通过创建一个可在多个级别进行询问和更新的透明流程,为 DairyNZ 生物安全风险经理和行业利益相关者提供决策优势,以充分了解不同生物构成的风险层次。

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