Zhang Wei, Liu Hui
School of Economics, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, 410128, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 2;14(1):22915. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-74065-5.
This study constructed a system dynamics (SD) evolutionary game model, from which we analyzed the conditions that need to be met by multi-agents to achieve cooperation in agricultural water conservancy (AWC) Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Simultaneously, this study used numerical simulation to depict the impact of initial participation willingness, reward, punishment, income, and other parameters of local governments, project enterprises, and farmers on the evolution strategy. The results firstly showed that the basic conditions for tripartite cooperation are to strengthen the rewards and punishments for project enterprises and improve the participation benefits of farmers. Secondly, it showed that increasing the rewards for farmers and improving the project dividend benefits can effectively motivate farmers to participate. Thirdly, it showed that enhancing the incentive subsidies and reputation benefits for project enterprise's participation, as well as strengthening the supervision of local government, boosts the motivation of project enterprises significantly. However, it is vital to ensure that the reward amounts are not too high to allow local government to play its guiding role efficiently. Lastly, the results indicated that digital technology can help reduce the participation cost of local government, project enterprises and farmers, and improve the external reputation benefits of each participant, thus forming a win-win situation for all three participants. Analyzing the cooperation strategies of the three parties in AWC PPP projects provides theoretical support and a decision-making basis for the efficient operation of AWC PPP projects under the digital background, and also provides practical policy recommendations for the high-quality development of AWC.
本研究构建了一个系统动力学（SD）演化博弈模型，据此分析了多主体在农业水利公私合营（PPP）项目中实现合作需满足的条件。同时，本研究运用数值模拟刻画了地方政府、项目企业和农户的初始参与意愿、奖励、惩罚、收益等参数对演化策略的影响。结果首先表明，三方合作的基本条件是强化对项目企业的奖惩并提高农户的参与收益。其次，结果表明增加对农户的奖励并提高项目分红收益能有效激励农户参与。第三，结果表明提高对项目企业参与的激励补贴和声誉收益，以及加强地方政府监管，能显著提升项目企业的积极性。然而，确保奖励金额不过高以使地方政府能有效发挥其引导作用至关重要。最后，结果表明数字技术有助于降低地方政府、项目企业和农户的参与成本，提高各参与方的外部声誉收益，从而形成三方共赢的局面。分析农业水利PPP项目中三方的合作策略，为数字背景下农业水利PPP项目的高效运作提供了理论支持和决策依据，也为农业水利的高质量发展提供了切实可行的政策建议。
