Wang Donghui, Chi Guangqing
Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 103 Armsby, University Park, PA 16802, USA, Telephone: +1 917-679-3858.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 112E Armsby, University Park, PA 16802, USA, Telephone: +1 814-865-5553.
Demogr Res. 2017 Jul-Dec;37:493-526. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.16. Epub 2017 Aug 23.
China has been characterized by persistently low fertility rates since the 1990s. Existing literature has examined the relationships of fertility levels with social, economic, and policy-related determinants. However, the possible spatial variations in these relationships have not been investigated.
The purpose of this study is to examine the potential spatially varying relationships between county-level fertility rates and policy and socioeconomic factors in China.
Using geocoded 2010 county-level census data, this study adopts the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to identify place-specific relationships between county-level total fertility rate (TFR) and socioeconomics and policy-related factors.
We find relationships between TFR and widely used social, economic, and policy-related factors () vary spatially in terms of the direction, strength, and magnitude. The spatial variation is largely due to the difference in local characteristics. The differences and the complexities of localities cannot be told by a single story of either government intervention or socioeconomic development.
This study extends the existing fertility research in China by explicitly recognizing the spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of policy and socioeconomic factors on the local fertility rate. This study sets the stage for future research that will contextually analyze varying fertility rates at the sub-national level in China and other countries.
自20世纪90年代以来，中国一直呈现出持续的低生育率特征。现有文献已经研究了生育率水平与社会、经济及政策相关决定因素之间的关系。然而，这些关系中可能存在的空间差异尚未得到研究。
本研究旨在探讨中国县级生育率与政策及社会经济因素之间潜在的空间变化关系。
利用2010年带有地理编码的县级人口普查数据，本研究采用地理加权回归（GWR）方法来确定县级总生育率（TFR）与社会经济及政策相关因素之间特定地点的关系。
我们发现，总生育率与广泛使用的社会、经济及政策相关因素之间的关系在方向、强度和量级方面存在空间差异。这种空间差异很大程度上归因于地方特征的差异。地方的差异和复杂性不能简单地用政府干预或社会经济发展的单一情况来解释。
本研究通过明确认识到政策和社会经济因素对地方生育率影响的空间异质性，扩展了中国现有的生育率研究。本研究为未来在中国及其他国家次国家层面上对不同生育率进行背景分析的研究奠定了基础。
