Yang Yu, He Rongxin, Li Liming
School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 May 21;13:1587358. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1587358. eCollection 2025.
The birth rate is an important indicator of the health of the population. However, persistently low birth rate has become a pressing demographic challenge for many countries, including China. This has significant implications for sustainable population planning.
This study applied hot spot analysis and the spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) modeling, used panel data of 286 cities in China from 2012 to 2021 to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the relationship between the socioeconomic development and birth rate.
The research has found that 2017 was an important turning point in China's demographic transition. The hot spot analysis reveals that the birth rate hot spots are characterized by a multipolar kernel distribution, shifting from spatial diffusion to convergence, with the cold spots mainly located in the northeast. And the GTWR modeling found that the relationship between socioeconomic development and birth rate varies and change dynamically over space and time. Key findings include: (1) the negative impact of GDP per capita on birth rates has intensified; (2) housing prices exhibit both wealth and crowding-out effects on birth rates, and there are obvious regional differences between the north and the south; (3) fiscal education expenditure on birth rates has the most pronounced income effect in the eastern region.
This study adopts spatiotemporal perspective to reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the association between socioeconomic development and birth rate. It provides new evidence on the influence of macro factors on fertility in China. And emphasizes the importance of incorporating regional variations into population policy design.
出生率是人口健康的一项重要指标。然而，持续的低出生率已成为包括中国在内的许多国家面临的紧迫人口挑战。这对可持续的人口规划具有重大影响。
本研究应用热点分析和时空地理加权回归（GTWR）建模，使用中国286个城市2012年至2021年的面板数据，探讨社会经济发展与出生率之间关系的时空异质性。
研究发现2017年是中国人口转变的一个重要转折点。热点分析表明，出生率热点呈现多极核心分布特征，从空间扩散转向集聚，冷点主要位于东北地区。并且GTWR建模发现，社会经济发展与出生率之间的关系在空间和时间上是动态变化的。主要发现包括：（1）人均GDP对出生率的负面影响加剧；（2）房价对出生率既有财富效应又有挤出效应，且南北存在明显的区域差异；（3）财政教育支出对出生率的收入效应在东部地区最为显著。
本研究采用时空视角揭示了社会经济发展与出生率之间关联的时空异质性。它为宏观因素对中国生育率的影响提供了新的证据。并强调了将区域差异纳入人口政策设计的重要性。
