Vu D T, Yamada T, Ishidaira H
Interdisciplinary Center for River Basin Environment (ICRE), University of Yamanashi, Takeda 4-3-11, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8511, Japan E-mail:
Graduate School of Civil and Environment Engineering, Chuo University, Kasuga 1-13-27, Bunkyo, Tokyo 112-0003, Japan.
Water Sci Technol. 2018 Mar;77(5-6):1632-1639. doi: 10.2166/wst.2018.038.
In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.
在气候变化的背景下，盐分入侵河流一直是且将继续是沿海水资源管理最重要的问题之一。包括气温升高、区域降雨变化，尤其是与气候变化相关的海平面上升（SLR）在内的一系列变化，将对这一现象产生重大影响。本文介绍了在越南湄公河三角洲（MKD）开展的一项研究成果，该研究旨在评估新的海平面上升情景下海水入侵的影响。通过一维（1D）建模模拟盐分入侵。基于统计降尺度方法，构建了与MKD的RCP 6.0排放情景相对应的相对海平面预测。预计到2050年，海平面将比基准期（2000年）上升25厘米至30厘米。此外，模拟结果表明，影响水稻产量的盐度大于4克/升的区域将向河流内侵入50至60公里。如果海平面上升30厘米，约3万公顷的农业区域将受到影响。
