Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
Regional Office for Asia, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Hanoi, Vietnam.
PLoS One. 2020 Mar 16;15(3):e0229464. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229464. eCollection 2020.
Rice production in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) is endangered by sea-level rise and an associated increase in the incidence of salinity intrusion. This paper examines the diffusion of salt tolerant rice varieties in the MRD that were promoted through Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE) activities. Factors associated with adoption of CURE-related varieties are estimated using a random utilty model and a dataset of 800 farm households with rice fields in salinity prone areas of the MRD. Results suggest that there has been widespread adoption of CURE-related varieties in salinity-prone areas. Further, multivariate analysis reveals that environment and location characteristics, rather than household characteristics, are the most important determinants of adoption. In particular, CURE-related varieties are more likely to be adopted in high-salinity-risk areas that are not protected by salinity barrier gates. Neighbhors' adoption decisions also strongly influence household decisions to adopt CURE-related varieties. The contracting of mechanization, particularly for land preparation and harvest, requires the coordination of village households in timing of planting, harvest and varietal duration. This coordination appears to extend to choice of CURE-related varieties. Finally, CURE-related varieties and other varieties generate similar net revenues in a year with low salinity exposure, suggesting that CURE-related varieties are a low-cost insurance policy against salinity inundation in high risk areas. Combined, these results highlight the need to address complex factors beyond current economic profits, like environment, community choices, and risk mitigation, when designing technologies and policies that support farmer adaptation to climatic change.
越南湄公河三角洲的水稻生产正受到海平面上升和盐度入侵增加的威胁。本文研究了通过 Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE) 活动推广的耐盐水稻品种在湄公河三角洲的扩散情况。使用随机效用模型和一个包含 800 户有盐渍田农户的数据集，估计了与 CURE 相关品种采用的相关因素。结果表明，在盐渍地区广泛采用了与 CURE 相关的品种。此外，多元分析表明，环境和地理位置特征而不是家庭特征是采用的最重要决定因素。特别是，在没有盐障门保护的高盐风险地区，更有可能采用与 CURE 相关的品种。邻居的采用决策也强烈影响家庭采用与 CURE 相关的品种的决策。机械化的承包，特别是土地准备和收获的机械化，需要村庄家庭在种植、收获和品种持续时间上协调一致。这种协调似乎也延伸到了对与 CURE 相关品种的选择。最后，在盐分暴露较低的一年中，与 CURE 相关的品种和其他品种产生相似的净收入，这表明与 CURE 相关的品种是高风险地区抵御盐渍淹没的低成本保险政策。综上所述，这些结果强调了在设计支持农民适应气候变化的技术和政策时，需要考虑环境、社区选择和风险缓解等复杂因素，而不仅仅是当前的经济利润。
