Department of Ecology, Montana State University, P.O. Box 173460, Bozeman, MT, 59717-3460, USA.
World Wildlife Fund, Northern Great Plains Program, 13 South Willson Avenue, Suite 1, Bozeman, MT, USA.
Environ Manage. 2018 Jun;61(6):981-1001. doi: 10.1007/s00267-018-1029-2. Epub 2018 Mar 29.
Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.
自然资源管理者需要制定策略来适应预计的未来气候。现有的气候适应框架很少规定在预期的未来气候条件下，将管理行动放在何处最为有效。我们开发了一种方法来空间分配气候适应行动，并将该方法应用于大黄石生态系统（GYE）中的白皮松（Pinus albicaulis）。预计白皮松将易受气候介导的适宜生境、害虫、病原体和火灾变化的影响。我们根据两种管理策略对旨在减轻白皮松气候影响的管理行动进行了空间优先排序：（1）当前管理和（2）气候信息管理。当前策略反映了现有政策和准入限制下允许的管理行动。我们的目标是了解考虑气候如何改变管理行动的位置，因此气候信息管理策略不包括这些限制。当前和气候信息管理策略之间的行动空间分布不同，气候信息管理下的荒野区域优先考虑的行动增加了 33-60%。实施管理行动的高优先区域包括 GYE 的 1-8%，当前和气候信息管理都同意，因为这是长期内行动最有可能成功的地方，也是当前管理允许实施的地方。气候信息管理策略彼此一致但与当前管理不一致的区域（GYE 的 6-22%）是管理行动实验测试的潜在地点。我们的空间气候适应规划方法适用于任何具有气候脆弱性和气候介导风险因素信息的物种。
