Yang Wei-Zhong, Xing Hui-Xian, Wang Han-Zhang, Lan Ya-Jia, Sun Qiao, Hu Shi-Xiong, Lü Wei, Yuan Zheng-An, Chen Yu-Xu, Dong Bai-Qing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2004 Dec;25(12):1039-41.
To provide methods and alert thresholds which are scientific, sensitive, specific and practical for Early Warning System in Public Health Surveillance.
Alert data was based on historical infectious diseases reports. Control chart was used to detect outbreaks or epidemics. An epidemic was defined by consulting Specialists. After calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and describing receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), the optimal model and thresholds were chosen.
At 80 percentile, the sensitivities and the specificities of epidemic haemorragia fever, hepatitis A, dysentery, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and malaria were over 90%, and there was a high efficacy of early warning. At 90 percentile, the sensitivities and the specificities of tuberculosis and measles were over 85%, and there was a high efficacy of early warning also.
Control chart based on five years was chose as a essential method in early warning system. The alert threshold for epidemic haemorragia fever, hepatitis A, dysentery, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and malaria was 80 percentile. The alert threshold for tuberculosis and measles was 90 percentile.
为公共卫生监测预警系统提供科学、灵敏、特异且实用的方法及预警阈值。
预警数据基于历史传染病报告。采用控制图检测疫情暴发或流行。通过咨询专家来定义疫情。在计算敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值并描述接收者操作特征曲线（ROC）后，选择最佳模型和阈值。
在第80百分位数时，流行性出血热、甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性脑脊髓膜炎和疟疾的敏感性和特异性均超过90%，预警效果良好。在第90百分位数时，结核病和麻疹的敏感性和特异性均超过85%，预警效果也良好。
选择基于五年数据的控制图作为预警系统的基本方法。流行性出血热、甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性脑脊髓膜炎和疟疾的预警阈值为第80百分位数。结核病和麻疹的预警阈值为第90百分位数。
