a Department of Management Sciences , COMSATS Institute of Information Technology , Sahiwal , Pakistan.
b Department of Management Sciences , COMSATS Institute of Information Technology , Lahore , Pakistan.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2018 Dec;25(4):401-407. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2018.1456466. Epub 2018 Apr 4.
The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January-November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers' risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.
本研究通过调查 2014 年 1 月至 11 月期间拉合尔交通警察局报告的 461 起道路事故，确定了巴基斯坦拉合尔致命和非致命道路事故背后的因素。道路事故分为致命和非致命事故，由于因变量的二元性质，使用逻辑回归来确定这些事故背后的因素。作为后续行动，采用判别分析对与致命和非致命事故相关的因素进行分类。逻辑回归结果表明，女性比男性驾驶员更容易发生致命事故。在车辆类型中，人力车和汽车更容易发生致命事故，因为这两种车辆在道路上大量增加。长卡车和拖车也卷入致命事故，主要是因为它们的体积庞大和司机的危险驾驶行为。还注意到，两车相撞时，致命的可能性更高。超速和超载是导致致命事故的常见行为。更好的城市交通系统和严格遵守交通规则和法规可能会提高巴基斯坦的道路安全。
