Caretta Research Project, Savannah, GA, USA.
Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Sci Rep. 2018 Apr 11;8(1):5852. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-24262-w.
Comparative syntheses of key demographic parameters are critical not only for identifying data gaps, but also for evaluating sources of heterogeneity among estimates. Because demographic studies frequently exhibit heterogeneity, evaluating sources of heterogeneity among estimates can inform biological patterns and conservation actions more broadly. To better understand adult survival in marine turtles and avoid drawing inaccurate conclusions from current estimates, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to test how heterogeneity among estimates was partitioned among phylogenetic, biogeographic and methodological factors. Fifty-nine studies from five marine turtle species met the minimum selection criteria for inclusion in our meta-analysis. Heterogeneity among survival estimates was first partitioned between differences in ocean basin (Indo-Pacific versus Atlantic), then by differences among family/tribe within the Indo-Pacific (Chelonini versus Carettini and Dermochelidae). However, apparent differences attributed to biogeography (ocean basin effect) and phylogeny (family/tribe effect) were highly correlated with methodological differences in tag type, model type, habitat type and study duration, thereby confounding biological interpretations and complicating efforts to use many current survival estimates in population assessments. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating sources of heterogeneity when interpreting patterns among similar demographic studies and directly inform efforts to identify research priorities for marine turtles globally.
关键人口参数的比较综合不仅对于识别数据差距至关重要，而且对于评估估计值之间异质性的来源也很重要。由于人口研究经常表现出异质性，评估估计值之间异质性的来源可以更广泛地了解生物模式和保护行动。为了更好地了解海洋龟类的成年存活率，并避免从当前估计中得出不准确的结论，我们进行了一项全面的荟萃分析，以检验估计值之间的异质性如何在系统发育、生物地理和方法学因素之间进行划分。来自五个海洋龟类物种的 59 项研究符合我们荟萃分析的最低选择标准。首先在海洋盆地（印度洋-太平洋与大西洋）之间划分了生存估计值之间的异质性，然后在印度洋-太平洋的科（Chelonini 与 Carettini 和 Dermochelidae）之间划分了差异。然而，归因于生物地理（海洋盆地效应）和系统发育（科/族效应）的明显差异与标记类型、模型类型、栖息地类型和研究持续时间方面的方法差异高度相关，从而混淆了生物学解释，并使使用许多当前的生存估计值进行种群评估的工作变得复杂。我们的研究结果强调了在解释类似人口研究中的模式时评估异质性来源的重要性，并直接为确定全球海洋龟类研究重点提供了信息。
