Medical Department, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China.
School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
Sci Rep. 2018 Apr 11;8(1):5829. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-24281-7.
The studies on drowning mortality are very scarce in China, and the aim of this study is to identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in China between 1990 and 2015 to provide evidence for further prevention and control on drowning. The mortality data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. This study demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates for drowning in both sexes displayed general declining trends with a decrease in the drowning mortality rate for every age group. In the same birth cohort, both sexes witnessed a substantial decline followed by a slight increase in the risk of death from drowning with age after controlling for period deviations. The estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar monotonic downward patterns for both sexes, with more reduction for females than for males during the whole study period.
在中国，关于溺水死亡率的研究非常匮乏。本研究旨在分析 1990 年至 2015 年中国溺水死亡率的长期变化模式，为进一步预防和控制溺水提供依据。死亡率数据来源于 2015 年全球疾病负担研究，采用年龄-时期-队列框架进行分析。本研究表明，无论男女，标准化溺水死亡率均呈总体下降趋势，各年龄组溺水死亡率均有所下降。在同一出生队列中，在控制时期偏差后，无论男女，随着年龄的增长，溺水死亡的风险先大幅下降，然后略有上升。估计的时期和队列相对风险在两性中呈现出相似的单调下降模式，整个研究期间女性的下降幅度大于男性。
