Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China.
Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 8 Donghunan Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430072, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Nov 9;15(11):2508. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15112508.
This study aimed to identify and compare the mortality trends for road injuries in China and the United States, and evaluate the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to the trends from 1990 to 2014. Using the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study database, the mortality trends were analyzed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling. Overall, the mortality for road injuries was higher in China than in the United States. The mortality in China increased from 1992 to 2002 (annual percent change [APC] was 1.9%), and then decreased from 2002 to 2015 (APC was 1.5%; APC was 3.5%). For the United States, the mortality decreased from 1990 to 2010 (APC was 1.8%; APC was 0.7%; APC was 4.2%). Age-period-cohort modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Compared with the period 2002⁻2004, the period risk ratios (RRs) in 2010⁻2014 period declined by 14.62% for China and 18.86% for the United States. Compared with the 1955⁻1959 birth cohort, the cohort RRs for China and the United States in the 2010⁻2014 cohort reduced by 47.60% and 75.94%, respectively. Period and cohort effects could not be ignored for reducing road injury mortalities.
本研究旨在识别和比较中国和美国道路伤害的死亡率趋势，并评估年龄、时期和队列效应对 1990 年至 2014 年趋势的贡献。使用 2016 年全球疾病负担研究数据库，通过 joinpoint 回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析死亡率趋势。总体而言，中国道路伤害死亡率高于美国。中国的死亡率从 1992 年到 2002 年上升（年平均变化百分比 [APC] 为 1.9%），然后从 2002 年到 2015 年下降（APC 为 1.5%；APC 为 3.5%）。对于美国，死亡率从 1990 年下降到 2010 年（APC 为 1.8%；APC 为 0.7%；APC 为 4.2%）。年龄-时期-队列模型揭示了显著的时期和队列效应。与 2002-2004 年相比，中国 2010-2014 年期间的时期风险比（RR）下降了 14.62%，美国下降了 18.86%。与 1955-1959 年出生队列相比，中国和美国 2010-2014 年队列的队列 RR 分别下降了 47.60%和 75.94%。为降低道路伤害死亡率，不容忽视时期和队列效应。
