Kimanzi Johnstone K
Department of Wildlife Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya.
ScientificWorldJournal. 2018 Feb 15;2018:6015694. doi: 10.1155/2018/6015694. eCollection 2018.
Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to (1) establish causes of roan population decline for the past 30 years in Ruma National Park (RNP), the only park where wild roans remain in Kenya, and (2) predict the probability of roan persistence under existing and alternative management options. PVA was done using long-term data based on population dynamics, life history, climatic conditions, and expert knowledge. Poaching was identified as the main cause of roan decline in RNP. Several antipoaching and prioritized habitat management interventions to promote population recovery and sustainable conservation of roans are described. PVA predictions indicated that, without these interventions, the roan population cannot persist more than 3 decades. Furthermore, ensuring sustainable conservation of roans in RNP will boost tourism in Western Kenyan and thus alleviate poverty in this part of the country. Improved income from tourism will reduce the possible pressures from hunting and give greater incentives for local people to be actively engaged in roan conservation.
种群生存力分析（PVA）被用于：（1）确定肯尼亚唯一留存野生马羚的鲁马国家公园（RNP）中，过去30年马羚种群数量下降的原因；（2）预测在现有及其他管理方案下，马羚种群得以延续的概率。PVA基于种群动态、生活史、气候条件及专家知识，利用长期数据开展。偷猎被认定为鲁马国家公园马羚数量下降的主要原因。文中描述了多项反偷猎及优先栖息地管理干预措施，以促进马羚种群数量恢复及可持续保护。PVA预测表明，若无这些干预措施，马羚种群延续时间将不超过30年。此外，确保鲁马国家公园马羚的可持续保护将推动肯尼亚西部的旅游业发展，从而缓解该国这一地区的贫困状况。旅游业收入的增加将减轻狩猎可能带来的压力，并给予当地居民更大激励，使其积极参与马羚保护工作。
