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医学和昆虫学疟疾干预措施,利用罗斯/麦克唐纳模型变体和 openmalaria 模拟进行的两种控制措施的比较和协同作用。

Medical and entomological malarial interventions, a comparison and synergy of two control measures using a Ross/Macdonald model variant and openmalaria simulation.

机构信息

Micron School of Materials Science and Engineering, Boise State University, Engineering Building Suite 338, Boise, ID 83725, USA; Pilgrim Africa, 115 N 85th St #202, Seattle, WA 98103, USA.

Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 Fifth Ave., Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121, USA.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2018 Jun;300:187-200. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.04.005. Epub 2018 Apr 12.

Abstract

Using an established Ross/Macdonald model variant for mosquito-born parasite transmission, we extend the formalism to simply incorporate time-dependent control measures. In particular, two interventions are considered, mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), whose individual intensities during their respective campaigns are set to the same intervention-reduced reproductive number R. The impacts of these interventions, measured as each campaign's ability over time to reduce infections in a community, are found based on the transmission setting, coverage, and their associated durations. These impacts are compared for both interventions and their joint deployment. Synchronous campaigns of IRS deployed with MDA have a cooperative, synergistic effect whose impact exceeds that when the campaigns are deployed in isolation. Simulations with openmalaria, with its more complex model of transmission, are separately performed and show a similar impact enhancement with these interventions. A new, associated analysis yields simple scaling relationships that estimate the dynamical resurgence time, post-intervention, to infection proliferation in a community.

摘要

利用已建立的罗斯/麦克唐纳(Ross/Macdonald)蚊虫传播寄生虫模型变体,我们扩展了形式主义,以简单地纳入时变控制措施。具体来说,考虑了两种干预措施,即大规模药物治疗(MDA)和室内滞留喷洒(IRS),在各自的活动期间,其个体强度被设定为相同的干预降低繁殖数 R。这些干预措施的影响,以每次活动随时间减少社区感染的能力来衡量,基于传播环境、覆盖范围和相关持续时间来确定。比较了这两种干预措施及其联合部署的效果。IRS 与 MDA 同步进行的活动具有协同作用,其影响超过了单独进行这些活动的情况。使用更复杂的疟疾传播模型 openmalaria 进行的模拟也显示了这些干预措施的类似影响增强。一个新的相关分析得出了简单的缩放关系,这些关系估计了干预后社区感染扩散的动态复苏时间。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee57/6013649/cfb1a274b2fd/gr1.jpg

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