School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Jun;25(18):17540-17552. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-1947-9. Epub 2018 Apr 16.
Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China's electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China's evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023-2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.
最近，中国国家环保总局出台了几项 PM10 减排政策，严格控制煤炭消耗，促进电力结构调整。在新的政策环境下，需要一种合适的分析方法来模拟中国电力结构即将发生的重大转变。首先，建立了一个完整的系统动力学模型，以模拟中国在考虑 PM10 减排的技术和经济因素约束下的电力结构演变路径。其次，在不同的清洁能源容量增长率下进行情景分析，为 PM10 减排寻求适用的政策指导。结果表明：（1）到 2018 年，火电机组装机容量的比例将下降到 67%，并且在 2023-2032 年将加速下降。（2）系统动力学模型可以有效地模拟政策的实施，例如，预测模型中煤炭消耗的比例为 63.3%（准确率为 95.2%），低于 2017 年 65%的政策目标。（3）中国应促进核电等清洁能源发电，以实现 PM10 减排目标。
