Current and future emission estimates of exhaust gases and particles from shipping at the largest port in Korea.

The emissions of exhaust gases (NOx , SO2, VOCs, and CO2) and particles (e.g., PM) from ships traversing Busan Port in Korea were estimated over three different years (the years 2006, 2008, and 2009). This analysis was performed according to the ship operational modes ("at sea," "maneuvering," and "in port") and ship types based on an activity-based method. The ship emissions for current (base year 2009) and future scenarios (years 2020 and 2050) were also compared. The annual emissions of SO2, VOCs, PM, and CO2 were highest (9.6 × 10(3), 374, 1.2 × 10(3), and 5.6 × 10(5) ton year(-1), respectively) in 2008. In contrast, the annual NO x emissions were highest (11.7 × 10(3) ton year(-1)) in 2006 due mainly to the high NO x emission factor. The emissions of air pollutants for each ship operational mode differed considerably, with the largest emission observed in "in port" mode. In addition, the largest fraction (approximately 45-67%) of the emissions of all air pollutants during the study period was emitted from container ships. The future ship emissions of most pollutants (except for SO2 and PM) in 2020 and 2050 are estimated to be 1.4-1.8 and 4.7-6.1 times higher than those in 2009 (base year), respectively.