Zhou Xing, Guan Xueling, Zhang Ming, Zhou Yao, Zhou Meihua
School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China.
Public Health School, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, 22116, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2017 Mar;24(8):7088-7113. doi: 10.1007/s11356-016-8360-z. Epub 2017 Jan 16.
China will form its carbon market in 2017 to focus on the allocation of regional carbon emission quota in order to cope with global warming. The rationality of the regional allocation has become an important consideration for the government in ensuring stable growth in different regions that are experiencing disparity in resource endowment and economic status. Based on constructing the quota allocation indicator system for carbon emission, the emission quota for each province in different scenarios and schemes in 2020 is simulated by the multifactor hybrid weighted Shannon entropy allocation model. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The top 5 secondary-level indicators that influence provincial quota allocation in weight are as follows: per capita energy consumption, openness, per capita carbon emission, per capita disposable income, and energy intensity. (2) The ratio of carbon emission in 2020 is different from that in 2013 in many scenarios, and the variation is scenario 2 > scenario 1 > scenario 3, with Hubei and Guangdong the provinces with the largest increase and decrease ratios, respectively. (3) In the same scenario, the quota allocation varies in different reduction criteria emphases; if the government emphasizes reduction efficiency, scheme 1 will show obvious adjustment, that is, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, and Yunnan will have the largest decrease. The amounts are 4.28, 8.31, 4.04, and 5.97 million tons, respectively.
中国将于2017年形成碳市场，重点是区域碳排放配额的分配，以应对全球变暖。区域分配的合理性已成为政府确保不同地区稳定增长的重要考量因素，这些地区在资源禀赋和经济状况方面存在差异。基于构建碳排放配额分配指标体系，运用多因素混合加权香农熵分配模型模拟了2020年不同情景和方案下各省份的排放配额。得出以下结论：（1）影响省级配额分配权重的前5个二级指标如下：人均能源消费量、开放度、人均碳排放量、人均可支配收入和能源强度。（2）2020年碳排放比例在许多情景下与2013年不同，变化情况为情景2>情景1>情景3，湖北和广东分别是增减比例最大的省份。（3）在相同情景下，不同减排标准重点下的配额分配有所不同；如果政府强调减排效率，方案1将出现明显调整，即湖南、湖北、贵州和云南的降幅最大。降幅分别为428万吨、831万吨、404万吨和597万吨。
