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气候变化与预防的影响。加利福尼亚州为提供领导力所做的努力。

Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.

机构信息

Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California; and Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California.

出版信息

Ann Am Thorac Soc. 2018 Apr;15(Suppl 2):S114-S117. doi: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201706-476MG.

DOI:10.1513/AnnalsATS.201706-476MG
PMID:29676643
Abstract

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a "business as usual" approach, that is, no effort to control CO emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a "climate gap" in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols ("black carbon") are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The "cap" limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.

摘要

几十年来,大气中二氧化碳(CO)的浓度和地球表面的温度一直呈平行上升趋势,前者最近达到了 400 ppm,与全球变暖 1.5°C 的增幅一致。气候变化模型预测,如果采取“照常营业”的方法,即不努力控制化石燃料燃烧产生的 CO 排放,那么到 2034 年左右,年平均地表温度将增加超过 2°C。随着大气变暖,空气污染加剧。空气质量控制中的“气候差距”概念捕捉到了随着气候变暖,减少污染的监管政策效果降低的情况。温室气体和气候强迫气溶胶(“黑碳”)的来源与危害健康的空气污染物相同。加利福尼亚州已经采取了强有力的气候变化缓解政策,这些政策也旨在通过改善空气质量来实现公共健康的共同效益。这些政策包括先进的清洁汽车标准、可再生能源、限制郊区扩张的可持续社区战略、低碳燃料标准和能源效率。一种为 CO 排放定价的市场机制是总量管制与排放交易计划,该计划允许限额设施交易由州发放的温室气体排放配额。“限额”限制了所有覆盖源的温室气体总排放量,并随着时间的推移而减少,以逐步减少排放量。另一种方法是征收碳税。鉴于美国国家层面减缓甚至逆转这些政策的努力,加利福尼亚州在空气质量和气候变化缓解方面的领导地位变得越来越重要。

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