Forensic Science South Australia, 21 Divett Place, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, PB 92019 Auckland, New Zealand.
Forensic Sci Int Genet. 2018 Jul;35:82-96. doi: 10.1016/j.fsigen.2018.03.006. Epub 2018 Apr 7.
In this paper we introduce a new likelihood ratio method for evaluating mixed Y-STR profiles that is based on the premise that, given a haplotype has been seen in the person of interest, the most likely source of a second haplotype, matching at all or most loci, is in an individual with a recent common ancestor. We have called the new method the "Haplotype centred" (HC) method for likelihood ratio derivation. For single source, unambiguous haplotypes the HC method performs identically with the Kappa method proposed by Brenner. When attention is turned to mixtures we are required to assign a probability to many haplotypes seen neither in the database nor any person typed in the case. We derive a likelihood ratio formula in a way that allows a locus by locus approach. We demonstrate the application of the HC method on a series of Y-STR mixtures, originating from two to four individuals, in a manner that is still calculated locus-by-locus in nature.
在本文中，我们介绍了一种新的似然比方法，用于评估混合 Y-STR 谱，该方法基于以下前提：给定一个在感兴趣的个体中观察到的单倍型，最有可能的第二个单倍型来源是在具有最近共同祖先的个体中，与所有或大多数位点匹配。我们将新方法称为“基于单倍型”（HC）似然比推导方法。对于单一来源、明确的单倍型，HC 方法与 Brenner 提出的 Kappa 方法完全相同。当注意力转向混合物时，我们需要为许多既不在数据库中也不在任何个体中看到的单倍型分配一个概率。我们以允许逐个基因座的方式推导出似然比公式。我们以逐个基因座的方式展示了 HC 方法在一系列源自两个人到四个人的 Y-STR 混合物中的应用。
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