Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia.
Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Ehime University, Bunkyo-cho 3, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan.
J Med Entomol. 2022 May 11;59(3):1008-1018. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjac005.
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a major mosquito-borne viral disease. Studies have reported a strong correlation between weather, the abundance of Aedes aegypti, the vector of DHF virus, and dengue incidence. However, this conclusion has been based on the general climate pattern of wide regions. In general, however, the human population, level of infrastructure, and land-use change in rural and urban areas often produce localized climate patterns that may influence the interaction between climate, vector abundance, and dengue incidence. Thoroughly understanding this correlation will allow the development of a customized and precise local early warning system. To achieve this purpose, we conducted a cohort study, during January-December 2017, in 16 districts in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. In the selected areas, local weather stations and modified light mosquito traps were set up to obtain data regarding daily weather and the abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti. A generalized linear model was applied to analyze the effect of local weather and female adult Ae. aegypti on the number of dengue cases. The result showed a significant non-linear correlation among mosquito abundance, maximum temperature, and dengue cases. Using our model, the data showed that the addition of a single adult Ae. aegypti mosquito increased the risk of dengue infection by 1.8%, while increasing the maximum temperature by one degree decreased the risk by 17%. This finding suggests specific actionable insights needed to supplement existing mosquito eradication programs.
登革出血热（DHF）是一种主要的蚊媒病毒性疾病。研究报告称，天气、登革热病毒的传播媒介埃及伊蚊的丰度与登革热发病率之间存在很强的相关性。然而，这一结论是基于广泛地区的一般气候模式。然而，一般来说，农村和城市地区的人口、基础设施水平和土地利用变化往往会产生局部气候模式，这些模式可能会影响气候、媒介丰度和登革热发病率之间的相互作用。彻底了解这种相关性将有助于开发定制的精确的本地早期预警系统。为了实现这一目标，我们在 2017 年 1 月至 12 月期间在印度尼西亚西爪哇省万隆的 16 个区进行了一项队列研究。在所选择的地区，设立了当地气象站和改良的诱蚊灯，以获取有关每日天气和成年雌性埃及伊蚊丰度的数据。应用广义线性模型分析了当地天气和雌性埃及伊蚊成虫对登革热病例数的影响。结果表明，蚊子丰度、最高温度和登革热病例之间存在显著的非线性相关性。根据我们的模型，数据显示，增加一只成年埃及伊蚊会使登革热感染的风险增加 1.8%，而将最高温度升高一度则会使风险降低 17%。这一发现表明，需要补充现有灭蚊计划的具体可行的见解。
