Johann David, Königslöw Katharina Kleinen-von, Kritzinger Sylvia, Thomas Kathrin
Polit Commun. 2017 Sep 8;35(2):261-286. doi: 10.1080/10584609.2017.1339222. eCollection 2018.
An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters' likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters' party ambivalence.
越来越多的公民在竞选活动期间改变并调整他们的政党偏好。我们分析哪些短期因素可以解释竞选期间投票偏好的变化，重点关注新闻媒体报道和政党拉票的可见性及基调。我们的分析依赖于一种综合数据方法，将媒体内容分析的数据与民意数据相联系。这使我们能够研究新闻媒体报道以及政党沟通的相对影响。本质上，我们克服了先前在研究传播对投票行为的影响时所发现的方法问题。我们的研究结果表明竞选活动很重要：特别是人际间的政党拉票会增加选民改变投票偏好以支持相应政党的可能性，而媒体的影响仅限于高质量新闻媒体，并且取决于个体选民的政党矛盾心理。
