Mao Liu Xi, Zhao Jun Fang, Xu Ling Ling, Yan Hao, Li Sen, Li Ya Fei
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2016 Dec;27(12):3935-3943. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201612.026.
The "sickle bend" area is a typical dry farming and excellent livestock development area, with fragile ecological environment. It includes 13 provinces (autonomous regions) in the north and the southwest of China. The climate suitability and the climatic potential productivity of spring maize from 1981 to 2010 in this area were quantitatively assessed. The daily data from 650 meteorological stations and grid data (1 km×1 km) in the "sickle bend" area from 1981 to 2010, and recognized indicators of agricultural meteorology were used in this study. The agro-ecological zoning mo-del (AEZ) which was currently very popular in estimating crop climatic potential productivity internationally was also applied, as well as land use classification information monitoring from satellite remote sensing. Then, based on biological characteristics of spring maize and agricultural climate resources, scientific countermeasures on reasonably adjusting agricultural production structure in subsuitable and unsuitable areas were proposed. The results showed that: 1) the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the northern growing areas showed the "big-medium-smaller-small" distribution pattern from the east to the west from 1981 to 2010. However, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the southern growing areas had no significant distribution law, fluctuating between "smaller" and " medium " in general. 2) It presented the "most suitable-suitable-subsuitable-unsuitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest in the northern maize growing region of the "sickle bend" area on the whole from 1981 to 2010. In contrast, the southern planting area showed the "unsuitable-subsuitable-suitable-most suitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest. The most suitable and suitable planting areas of spring maize were mainly located in the most areas of Northeast China and North China, and the southeastern areas of Northwest China. The subsuitable or unsuitable regions mainly included Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu and Guangxi. 3) The most suitable planting area of spring maize was the largest (47%), followed by subsuitable area (23%), unsuitable area (17%) and suitable area (13%). 4) According to the analysis of climatic conditions, we proposed to mainly decrease the spring maize planting in the subsuitable and unsuitable areas. These subsuitable and unsuitable regions were low climatic potential productivity areas, including the arid windstorm region of Northwest, the cold area of Northeast, agro-pastoral area and the rocky desertification region of Southwest.
“镰刀弯”地区是典型的旱作农业和优质畜牧业发展区，生态环境脆弱。它包括中国北方和西南部的13个省（自治区）。对该地区1981—2010年春玉米的气候适宜性及气候生产潜力进行了定量评估。本研究采用了1981—2010年“镰刀弯”地区650个气象站的逐日资料和网格数据（1 km×1 km）以及公认的农业气象指标。还应用了目前国际上在估算作物气候生产潜力方面非常流行的农业生态区域模型（AEZ），以及卫星遥感土地利用分类信息监测。然后，根据春玉米的生物学特性和农业气候资源，提出了在次适宜区和不适宜区合理调整农业生产结构的科学对策。结果表明：1）1981—2010年春玉米气候生产潜力在北方种植区从东到西呈“大—中—小—小”的分布格局。而南方种植区春玉米气候生产潜力无明显分布规律，总体在“小”和“中”之间波动。2）1981—2010年总体上“镰刀弯”地区北方玉米种植区从东南向西北呈“最适宜—适宜—次适宜—不适宜”的分布格局。相比之下，南方种植区从东南向西北呈“不适宜—次适宜—适宜—最适宜”的分布格局。春玉米最适宜和适宜种植区主要位于东北、华北的大部分地区以及西北的东南部地区。次适宜或不适宜区主要包括内蒙古北部、新疆北部、甘肃西部和广西。3）春玉米最适宜种植面积最大（47%），其次是次适宜区（23%）、不适宜区（17%）和适宜区（13%）。4）根据气候条件分析，建议主要减少次适宜区和不适宜区的春玉米种植。这些次适宜区和不适宜区是气候生产潜力低的地区，包括西北干旱风沙区、东北寒冷区、农牧交错区和西南石漠化区。
