State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China.
PLoS One. 2018 Sep 27;13(9):e0203538. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0203538. eCollection 2018.
Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.
研究作物气候适宜性变化和种植区域化，可以为应对气候变化下的粮食安全提供科学依据。本研究基于中国北方 321 个农业气象观测站 1965 年至 2014 年逐日气象资料，采用农业气候适宜度理论和模糊数学方法，研究了中国北方马铃薯气候适宜性和种植区域化变化。将中国北方划分为西北、华北和东北三个地区。将马铃薯生育期分为播种-出苗期、出苗-开花期和开花-成熟期三个阶段，建立综合气候适宜度指数（C），评价气候变化对马铃薯种植的影响。结果表明，1965-2014 年，过去 50 年，研究区 C 值每 10 年增加 0.002，平均为 0.706，有利于中国北方广大地区马铃薯生长。然而，降水是制约中国北方马铃薯生长的主要气候因素。从空间分布看，C 值呈现出由东向西逐渐降低的趋势，过去 50 年呈下降趋势。就生育期而言，C 值在过去 50 年的不同马铃薯生育期内有所变化。在播种-出苗阶段，C 值增加，在出苗-开花阶段和开花-成熟阶段，C 值降低。后期生长阶段 C 值降低会直接影响马铃薯的品质和产量，主要是因为开花-成熟阶段与马铃薯块茎膨大、淀粉积累有关。过去 50 年中国北方马铃薯种植区域化变化明显。气候变化对东北地区马铃薯种植更为有利，高适宜区面积明显扩大。然而，在最不利的西北地区，中适宜区面积退缩明显。本研究结果对提高气候变化影响研究和农业生产应对气候变化具有重要意义。
