Zhao Jun-Fang, Guo Jian-Ping, Wu Ding-Rong, Fang Shi-Bo, E You-Hao
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2011 Dec;22(12):3189-95.
Based on the daily data under B2 climate scenario (2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) extracted from the regional climate model PRECIS, and by using the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model, a prediction was conducted on the possible spatiotemporal changes of the climatic potential productivity of the two crops in the Huanghuaihai Plain in 2011-2050. Under baseline climate condition, the climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize presented a regional differentiation, i.e., higher in southeast and lower in northwest regions, and higher along coast and lower in inland at the same latitudes, and fluctuated within the ranges of 3893-11000 kg x hm(-2) and 5908-12000 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Under B2 climate scenario, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize would have a greater inter-annual change, due to the different matching degrees of light, temperature and water during the growth periods of the crops. The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2030 and summer maize in 2021-2040 would have an obvious increase, with great potential for development. Under the conditions of maintaining the present production, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2050 would present an overall regional differentiation of reverse change in southeast and northwest regions and the same change in coastal and inland areas, whereas the climatic potential productivity of summer maize in 2011-2050 would have little regional differentiation.
基于从区域气候模式PRECIS中提取的B2气候情景（2011 - 2050年）和基准气候条件（1961 - 1990年）下的日数据，并利用农业生态区（AEZ）模型，对2011 - 2050年黄淮海平原两种作物气候生产潜力的时空变化进行了预测。在基准气候条件下，冬小麦和夏玉米的气候生产潜力呈现出区域差异，即东南部较高，西北部较低，在相同纬度上沿海地区较高，内陆地区较低，波动范围分别在3893 - 11000 kg·hm⁻²和5908 - 12000 kg·hm⁻²之间。在B2气候情景下，由于作物生长期间光、温、水的匹配程度不同，冬小麦和夏玉米的气候生产潜力年际变化较大。2011 - 2030年冬小麦和2021 - 2040年夏玉米的气候生产潜力将有明显增加，发展潜力巨大。在维持现有生产的条件下，2011 - 2050年冬小麦的气候生产潜力在东南部和西北部地区将呈现反向变化的总体区域差异，沿海和内陆地区变化相同，而2011 - 2050年夏玉米的气候生产潜力区域差异较小。
