Environmental Research Group and Medical Research Council-Public Health England (MRC-PHE), King's College London, London, UK.
Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
Lancet Planet Health. 2018 May;2(5):e202-e213. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6.
Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions.
In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups.
NO concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO itself. PM concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050.
The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent.
National Institute for Health Research.
气候变化对英国乃至全球人口的健康构成了危险且迫在眉睫的威胁。我们旨在通过模拟不同的情景来评估缓解行动带来的健康协同效益。
在这项建模研究中，我们结合了详细的技术经济能源系统模型（英国 TIMES）、空气污染物排放清单、复杂的空气污染模型（社区多尺度空气质量模型）以及之前发表的浓度与健康结果之间的关联。我们使用了四个情景，并重点研究了细颗粒物（PM）、二氧化氮（NO）和臭氧带来的空气污染影响。四个情景分别为基线情景，假设除已经实现的气候行动之外不再采取任何进一步的行动，并且不满足英国气候变化法案（到 2050 年，与 1990 年相比，二氧化碳当量排放减少至少 80%）的目标；核电情景，通过有限增加核电来满足气候变化法案的目标；低碳温室气体情景，在不限制核电建设的情况下满足气候变化法案的目标；以及恒定情景，该情景将 2011 年的空气污染物浓度保持到 2050 年。我们预测了到 2050 年各个情景的空气污染对健康和经济的影响，以及不同社会经济群体之间的暴露不平等情况。
NO 浓度下降，核电情景下 2011 年至 2154 年预计将挽救 489.2 万生命年，低碳温室气体情景下预计将挽救 717.8 万生命年。然而，我们使用的关联可能会高估 NO 本身的影响。在满足气候变化法案目标的情景下，英国的 PM 浓度预计到 2050 年将比 2011 年下降 42%至 44%，尤其是道路交通和非道路机械产生的 PM 浓度。这一降幅受到 2035 年（随后下降）生物质（木柴燃烧）峰值的影响，以及未来对交通需求的大幅预测增长，这可能导致非排放性颗粒物排放增加。在满足气候变化法案承诺方面，生物质可能在控制不良的技术中被广泛应用，这将是一个重要的错失的机会（在低碳温室气体情景下，与基线情景相比，PM 造成的生命损失将增加 47.2 万，在核电情景下，PM 造成的生命损失将增加 112.2 万）。尽管与 2011 年相比，暴露量的绝对数量有了显著改善，但这些结果掩盖了一个事实，即健康不平等（社会经济劣势人群暴露程度最高）预计将持续到 2050 年。
创建的建模基础设施将帮助未来的研究人员探索更广泛的气候政策情景，包括地方、欧洲和全球情景。加强气候变化政策目标与公共卫生重点之间的联系，并利用这些措施为社会福利带来的好处，这是当务之急。
英国国家卫生研究院。
