Yang Li, Zhang Chao, Chen Minhao, Li Jingxin, Yang Lei, Huo Zhaomin, Ahmad Shahid, Luan Xiaofeng
School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China.
Ecol Evol. 2018 Mar 23;8(8):3862-3870. doi: 10.1002/ece3.3859. eCollection 2018 Apr.
Long-term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long-term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black-billed capercaillie () is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long-term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64-90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black-billed capercaillie.
长期生态数据可以成为一种有效的工具，帮助生态学家将未来预测与历史背景相结合，并为濒危物种的长期动态提供独特见解。然而，由于数据限制，包括数据不完整和空间偏差，相对较少的研究使用了数十年的数据集，或从历史角度研究生物地理学的变化。黑嘴松鸡（）是一种大型松鸡（在国际自然保护联盟红色名录中被列为无危[LC]），在20世纪后期其种群数量急剧下降，被视为濒危物种。其保护状况不容乐观，该物种需要立即得到保护。因此，我们补充了一个历史数据集，以确定这种鸟类在中国东北长期以来的分布范围和种群数量变化。研究区域横跨中国东北的黑龙江省、吉林省和内蒙古自治区的东北角。我们将生态位模型（BIOMOD2）与该物种的长期生态数据相结合，以估计其分布随时间的变化幅度。我们的结果显示，与20世纪70年代的潜在分布相比，该物种目前的分布减少了35.25%。预计在气候变化下，这种下降趋势将持续。例如，未来分布范围的损失估计为38.79±0.22%（8.64 - 90.19%），实际情况可能更糟，因为模型的基线范围大于21世纪初的实际范围，高估了12.39%。为了克服这种不利前景，应在敏感地区制定保护策略，包括大兴安岭西南部和小兴安岭北部。应考虑的行动包括实地调查、建立监测网络、设计生态走廊，以及与当地居民、政府和保护生物学家合作，以加强对黑嘴松鸡的保护。
