Guo Hong Wei, Sun Xiao Yin, Lian Li Shu, Zhang Da Zhi, Xu Yan
Geography and Tourism College of Qufu Normal University/Shandong Universities Key Laboratory of Nansi Lake Wetland Ecological and Environmental Protection, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2016 Sep;27(9):2899-2906. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201609.039.
Land use change has an important role in hydrological processes and utilization of water resources, and is the main driving force of water yield function of ecosystem. This paper analyzed the change of land use from 1990 to 2013 in Nansi Lake Basin, Shandong Province. The future land use in 2030 was also predicted and simulated by CLUE-S model. Based on land use scenarios, we analyzed the influence of land use change on ecosystem function of water yield in nearly 25 years through InVEST water yield model and spatial mapping. The results showed that the area of construction land increased by 3.5% in 2013 because of burgeoning urbanization process, but farmland area decreased by 2.4% which was conversed to construction land mostly. The simulated result of InVEST model suggested that water yield level of whole basin decreased firstly and increased subsequently during last 25 years and peaked at 232.1 mm in 2013. The construction land area would increase by 6.7% in 2030 based on the land use scenarios of fast urbanization, which would lead to a remarkable growth for water yield and risk of flowing flooding. However, the water yield level of whole basin would decrease by 1.2 % in 2013 if 300 meter-wide forest buffer strips around Nansi Lake were built up.
土地利用变化在水文过程和水资源利用中具有重要作用，是生态系统产水量功能的主要驱动力。本文分析了山东省南四湖流域1990年至2013年的土地利用变化情况。利用CLUE - S模型对2030年的未来土地利用情况进行了预测和模拟。基于土地利用情景，通过InVEST产水量模型和空间制图分析了近25年土地利用变化对生态系统产水功能的影响。结果表明，由于城市化进程的快速发展，2013年建设用地面积增加了3.5%，而农田面积减少了2.4%，大部分转化为建设用地。InVEST模型模拟结果表明，近25年来全流域产水量水平先下降后上升，2013年达到峰值232.1毫米。基于快速城市化的土地利用情景，2030年建设用地面积将增加6.7%，这将导致产水量显著增加和洪水泛滥风险增大。然而，如果在南四湖周围建设300米宽的森林缓冲带，2013年全流域产水量水平将下降1.2%。
