a Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia , Vancouver , BC , Canada.
J Biol Dyn. 2019;13(sup1):23-30. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792. Epub 2018 May 9.
Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.
在疾病爆发的早期，能够估计疫情的最终规模非常重要，以便评估治疗需求并能够比较不同治疗方法的效果。然而，通常情况下，尤其是对于被认为危险的疾病，疫情的发展速度会比预期的慢得多。我们认为，通过假设在疫情面前的行为变化以及人群中混合的异质性，就有可能获得合理的早期估计。
