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北欧国家疫苗接种率的量化及其对 COVID-19 严重程度和医疗保健压力水平关键指标的影响,通过年龄范围比较分析。

The quantification of vaccine uptake in the Nordic countries and impact on key indicators of COVID-19 severity and healthcare stress level via age range comparative analysis.

机构信息

Department of Computer Science, Reykjavík University, Menntavegur 1, 102, Reykjavík, Iceland.

Institut de Physique des deux Infinis de Lyon (IP2I), UMR5822, CNRS/IN2P3, 69622, Villeurbanne, France.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 7;12(1):16891. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21055-0.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-21055-0
PMID:36207410
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9542476/
Abstract

In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically, we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we focus on factors such as healthcare stress level and severity of disease through new infections, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and deaths. Moreover, we analyze the impact of the various vaccine types, vaccination rate on the spread of the virus in each age group for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden from the start of the vaccination period in December 2020 until the end of September 2021. We perform a threefold analysis: (i) frequency analysis of infections and vaccine rates by age groups; (ii) rolling correlations between vaccination strategies, severity of COVID-19 and healthcare stress level and; (iii) we also employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework. The eRG is used to mathematically model wave structures, as well as the impact of vaccinations on wave dynamics. We further compare the Nordic countries with England. Our main results outline the quantification of the impact of the vaccination campaigns on age groups epidemiological data, across countries with high vaccine uptake. The data clearly shows that vaccines markedly reduce the number of new cases and the risk of serious illness.

摘要

在本文中,我们分析了疫苗接种对不同年龄组 COVID-19 病毒传播的影响。更具体地说,我们在比较分析中检查了北欧国家的疫苗接种情况,重点关注了通过新感染、住院、重症监护病房(ICU)入住率和死亡率等因素的医疗保健压力水平和疾病严重程度。此外,我们分析了从 2020 年 12 月疫苗接种开始到 2021 年 9 月底丹麦、芬兰、冰岛、挪威和瑞典在每个年龄组中各种疫苗类型、接种率对病毒传播的影响。我们进行了三重分析:(i)按年龄组分析感染和疫苗接种率的频率;(ii)疫苗接种策略、COVID-19 严重程度和医疗保健压力水平之间的滚动相关性;(iii)我们还采用了传染病重整群(eRG)框架。eRG 用于对波结构以及疫苗接种对波动力学的影响进行数学建模。我们还将北欧国家与英格兰进行了比较。我们的主要结果概述了疫苗接种活动对高疫苗接种率国家各年龄组流行病学数据的影响的量化。这些数据清楚地表明,疫苗显著减少了新发病例的数量和严重疾病的风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/99ef8118d4c7/41598_2022_21055_Fig12_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/62e884ec20a9/41598_2022_21055_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/da7bd84b4109/41598_2022_21055_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/6285cb6af4b5/41598_2022_21055_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/ae78978d7948/41598_2022_21055_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/94643d30e098/41598_2022_21055_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/c5d76b8fdf1e/41598_2022_21055_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/1362017e0f08/41598_2022_21055_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/a0a3d89b7ef8/41598_2022_21055_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc88/9547021/99ef8118d4c7/41598_2022_21055_Fig12_HTML.jpg

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