1 North Dakota State University, Fargo, USA.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2018 Oct;44(10):1502-1518. doi: 10.1177/0146167218771322. Epub 2018 May 9.
Group outcomes are difficult to model and predict using individual-level metrics. We use shared cognition concepts and the social relations model to predict cooperative group outcomes in two social dilemmas to test whether social projection or consensus among group members would best predict cooperation. Group-level variance components derived from the social relations model were used as indices of social projection and consensus. Groups played five rounds of two social dilemmas and predicted their partners' behavior on the following round. Results demonstrate that participants expect other group members to respond to the situation like the participant will and that shared expectations predict less competitive group behavior, but only when group members' expectations have little to no variance. This article demonstrates the utility of the social relations model in predicting group-level outcomes from individual inputs, as well as providing novel findings regarding the complex effects of shared expectations on collective outcomes.
使用个体水平的指标很难对群体结果进行建模和预测。我们使用共享认知概念和社会关系模型来预测两种社会困境中的合作群体结果，以测试成员之间的社会投射或共识是否能最好地预测合作。从社会关系模型中得出的群体水平方差分量被用作社会投射和共识的指标。群体进行了五轮两种社会困境的游戏，并预测了他们在下一轮的合作伙伴的行为。结果表明，参与者期望其他小组成员像参与者一样对情况做出反应，并且共享的期望预测了竞争较少的群体行为，但只有当小组成员的期望没有或几乎没有变化时才会如此。本文展示了社会关系模型在从个体输入预测群体结果方面的实用性，以及关于共享期望对集体结果的复杂影响的新发现。
