Rudolfson Niclas, Dewan Michael C, Park Kee B, Shrime Mark G, Meara John G, Alkire Blake C
1Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
2Surgery and Public Health, Department of Clinical Sciences in Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
J Neurosurg. 2018 May 18;130(4):1149-1156. doi: 10.3171/2017.12.JNS17281. Print 2019 Apr 1.
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: The authors estimated gross domestic product (GDP) losses and the broader welfare losses attributable to 5 neurosurgical disease categories in LMICs using two distinct economic models. The value of lost output (VLO) model projects annual GDP losses due to neurosurgical disease during 2015-2030, and is based on the WHO's "Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-health" tool. The value of lost economic welfare (VLW) model estimates total welfare losses, which is based on the value of a statistical life and includes nonmarket losses such as the inherent value placed on good health, resulting from neurosurgical disease in 2015 alone. RESULTS: The VLO model estimates the selected neurosurgical diseases will result in $4.4 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in GDP losses during 2015-2030 in the 90 included LMICs. Economic losses are projected to disproportionately affect low- and lower-middle-income countries, risking up to a 0.6% and 0.54% loss of GDP, respectively, in 2030. The VLW model evaluated 127 LMICs, and estimates that these countries experienced $3 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in economic welfare losses in 2015. Regardless of the model used, the majority of the losses can be attributed to stroke and traumatic brain injury. CONCLUSIONS: The economic impact of neurosurgical diseases in LMICs is significant. The magnitude of economic losses due to neurosurgical diseases in LMICs provides further motivation beyond already compelling humanitarian reasons for action.
目的:本研究的目的是评估低收入和中等收入国家(LMICs)神经外科疾病的经济后果。 方法:作者使用两种不同的经济模型估计了LMICs中5种神经外科疾病类别的国内生产总值(GDP)损失和更广泛的福利损失。产出损失价值(VLO)模型预测了2015年至2030年期间因神经外科疾病导致的年度GDP损失,该模型基于世界卫生组织的“预测健康不佳的经济成本”工具。经济福利损失价值(VLW)模型估计了总福利损失,该模型基于统计生命价值,包括仅在2015年因神经外科疾病产生的非市场损失,如对健康良好的内在价值。 结果:VLO模型估计,在所纳入的90个LMICs中,选定的神经外科疾病在2015年至2030年期间将导致4.4万亿美元(2013年美元,购买力平价)的GDP损失。预计经济损失将对低收入和中低收入国家产生不成比例的影响,到2030年,这些国家的GDP损失分别高达0.6%和0.54%。VLW模型评估了127个LMICs,并估计这些国家在2015年经历了3万亿美元(2013年美元,购买力平价)的经济福利损失。无论使用哪种模型,大部分损失都可归因于中风和创伤性脑损伤。 结论:神经外科疾病在LMICs中的经济影响是巨大的。LMICs中神经外科疾病造成的经济损失规模,除了已经令人信服的人道主义行动理由之外,还提供了进一步的行动动力。
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