Ortega-Villa Ana Maria, Grantz Katherine L, Albert Paul S
Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD, 20850, United States Of America. 9609 Medical Center Dr, Room SG/7E132, Rockville, MD, 20850, United States Of America.
Epidemiology Branch, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda Maryland, 20892, United States of America.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2018 Jun;181(3):825-842. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12312. Epub 2017 Aug 28.
Determining the date of conception is important for estimating gestational age and monitoring whether the fetus and mother are on track in their development and pregnancy. Various methods based on ultrasound have been proposed for dating a pregnancy in high resource countries. However, such techniques may not be available in under-resourced countries. We develop a shared random parameter model for estimating the date of conception using longitudinal assessment of multiple maternal anthropometry and cross-sectional neonatal anthropometry. The methodology is evaluated with a training-test set paradigm as well as with simulations to examine the robustness of the method to model misspecification. We illustrate this new methodology with data from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.
确定受孕日期对于估算孕周以及监测胎儿和母亲的发育及妊娠进程是否正常至关重要。在资源丰富的国家，已经提出了各种基于超声的方法来确定妊娠日期。然而，在资源匮乏的国家可能无法使用此类技术。我们开发了一种共享随机参数模型，用于通过对多个孕妇人体测量指标的纵向评估和新生儿人体测量指标的横断面评估来估算受孕日期。该方法采用训练-测试集范式以及模拟进行评估，以检验该方法对模型误设的稳健性。我们用美国国立儿童健康与人类发展研究所胎儿生长研究的数据说明了这种新方法。
