The Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing (TILDA), Lincoln Gate, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Republic of Ireland.
Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow, UK.
Demography. 2018 Aug;55(4):1317-1341. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0682-7.
This study empirically investigates the relationship between retirement duration and cognition among older Irish women using microdata collected in the third wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression estimates indicate that the longer an individual has been retired, the lower the cognitive functioning, with other factors thought to affect cognition held constant (e.g., age, education, and early-life socioeconomic conditions). However, retirement is potentially endogenous with respect to cognition because cognition may affect decisions relating to retiring. If so, the OLS estimates will be biased. To test for this possibility, instrumental variable (IV) estimation is used. This method requires an IV that is highly correlated with retirement duration but not correlated with cognition. The instrument used in this study is based on the so-called marriage bar, the legal requirement that women leave paid employment upon getting married, which took effect in Ireland in the 1930s and was abolished only in the 1970s. The IV regression estimates, along with formal statistical tests, provide no evidence in support of the view that cognition affects retirement decisions. The finding of a small negative effect of retirement duration on cognition is robust to alternative empirical specifications. These findings are discussed in the wider context of the effects of work-like and work-related activities on cognition.
本研究使用爱尔兰老龄化纵向研究第三波收集的微观数据,实证研究了退休持续时间与老年爱尔兰女性认知能力之间的关系。普通最小二乘法(OLS)回归估计表明,个体退休时间越长,认知能力越低,其他被认为会影响认知的因素(如年龄、教育和早年的社会经济状况)保持不变。然而,退休与认知之间可能存在内生性,因为认知可能会影响与退休相关的决策。如果是这样,OLS 估计将会有偏差。为了检验这种可能性,使用了工具变量(IV)估计。这种方法需要一个与退休持续时间高度相关但与认知无关的工具变量。本研究中使用的工具变量基于所谓的“婚姻障碍”,即女性一旦结婚就必须离开有薪工作的法律要求,该要求于 20 世纪 30 年代在爱尔兰生效,直到 20 世纪 70 年代才被废除。IV 回归估计值以及正式的统计检验均未提供证据支持认知会影响退休决策的观点。退休持续时间对认知能力的负面影响很小,这一发现对于替代经验规范是稳健的。这些发现将在工作和与工作相关的活动对认知的影响的更广泛背景下进行讨论。