Visiting Professor at Ardhi University, Tanzania.
Associate Professor at the School of Public and International Affairs, Virginia Tech, United States.
Disasters. 2019 Jan;43(1):88-109. doi: 10.1111/disa.12293. Epub 2018 Jun 12.
Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather-related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision-making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national-level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.
从事洪水和其他与天气相关的灾害应急管理的人员是应对灾害的关键一线响应者。然而，尽管这些专业人员在与预测和其他未知因素相关的充满不确定性的环境中运作，但不确定性对他们决策的影响还没有得到很好的理解。因此，在美国对县应急管理人员进行了一项全国性调查，以研究他们如何使用假设的气候、洪水和天气情景来模拟他们对不确定信息的反应，从而了解他们如何解释预测信息。研究表明，即使是具有丰富经验的应急管理人员，也会像普通民众一样采取决策捷径和做出有偏差的选择。他们的选择取决于概率预测呈现的格式以及结果是表示为收益还是损失等特征。总之，在制定和传达预测时考虑这些决策过程的预测者可以帮助改善洪水准备工作，并有可能减少灾害损失。
