Unité de Formation et de Recherche Sciences de la Terre et des Ressources Minières, Université Félix Houphouët Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
PLoS One. 2018 Jun 13;13(6):e0182304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182304. eCollection 2018.
Since the 1970s, the northern part of Côte d'Ivoire has experienced considerable fluctuation in its meteorology including a general decrease of rainfall and increase of temperature from 1970 to 2000, a slight increase of rainfall since 2000, a severe drought in 2004-2005 and flooding in 2006-2007. Such changing climate patterns might affect the transmission of malaria. The purpose of this study was to analyze climate and environmental parameters associated with malaria transmission in Korhogo, a city in northern Côte d'Ivoire. All data were collected over a 10-year period (2004-2013). Rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the climate and environmental variables considered. Association between these variables and clinical malaria data was determined, using negative binomial regression models. From 2004 to 2013, there was an increase in the annual average precipitation (1100.3-1376.5 mm) and the average temperature (27.2°C-27.5°C). The NDVI decreased from 0.42 to 0.40. We observed a strong seasonality in these climatic variables, which resembled the seasonality in clinical malaria. An incremental increase of 10 mm of monthly precipitation was, on average, associated with a 1% (95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.7 to 1.2%) and a 1.2% (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.5%) increase in the number of clinical malaria episodes one and two months later respectively. A 1°C increase in average monthly temperature was, on average, associated with a decline of a 3.5% (95% CI: 0.1 to 6.7%) in clinical malaria episodes. A 0.1 unit increase in monthly NDVI was associated with a 7.3% (95% CI: 0.8 to 14.1%) increase in the monthly malaria count. There was a similar increase for the preceding-month lag (6.7% (95% CI: 2.3% to 11.2%)). The study results can be used to establish a malaria early warning system in Korhogo to prepare for outbreaks of malaria, which would increase community resilience no matter the magnitude and pattern of climate change.
自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，科特迪瓦北部的气象经历了相当大的波动，包括 1970 年至 2000 年期间降雨量普遍减少和温度升高，2000 年以来降雨量略有增加，2004 年至 2005 年期间发生严重干旱，2006 年至 2007 年期间发生洪灾。这种不断变化的气候模式可能会影响疟疾的传播。本研究的目的是分析与科特迪瓦北部城市科霍戈的疟疾传播相关的气候和环境参数。所有数据均在 10 年期间（2004-2013 年）收集。降雨、温度和归一化植被指数（NDVI）是考虑的气候和环境变量。使用负二项回归模型确定这些变量与临床疟疾数据之间的关联。2004 年至 2013 年，年平均降水量（1100.3-1376.5 毫米）和平均温度（27.2°C-27.5°C）增加。NDVI 从 0.42 降至 0.40。我们观察到这些气候变量具有很强的季节性，与临床疟疾的季节性相似。每月降水量增加 10 毫米，平均分别与一个月和两个月后临床疟疾发作数增加 1%（95%置信区间（CI）：0.7 至 1.2%）和 1.2%（95%CI：0.9 至 1.5%）相关。平均每月温度升高 1°C，平均与临床疟疾发作数减少 3.5%（95%CI：0.1 至 6.7%）相关。每月 NDVI 增加 0.1 单位与每月疟疾计数增加 7.3%（95%CI：0.8 至 14.1%）相关。前一个月滞后（6.7%（95%CI：2.3%至 11.2%））也有类似的增加。研究结果可用于在科霍戈建立疟疾预警系统，以准备疟疾爆发，无论气候变化的规模和模式如何，这都将提高社区的恢复力。
