Nanvyat N, Mulambalah C S, Barshep Y, Ajiji J A, Dakul D A, Tsingalia H M
Department of Zoology, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Jos, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria.
Department of Biological Sciences, School of Biological and Physical Sciences, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya.
Trop Parasitol. 2018 Jan-Jun;8(1):18-23. doi: 10.4103/tp.TP_35_17. Epub 2018 May 28.
Malaria is a serious disease and still remains a public health problem in many parts of Nigeria.
The aim of this study was to describe malaria transmission trends and analyzed the impact of climatic factors on malaria transmission in the highlands of Plateau State, Central Nigeria.
The study was a retrospective survey which used archival data of climate parameters and medical case records on malaria. Rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature data were obtained from the nearest weather stations to the study locations from 1980 to 2015. Data on reported malaria cases were collected from general hospitals in the selected local government areas (LGAs) from 2003 to 2015. Generalized Additive Models were used to model trends in malaria incidences over time, and it is lagged association with climatic factors.
The results show a significant cyclical trend in malaria incidence in all the study areas ( < 0.001). The association between monthly malaria cases and mean monthly temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity show significant association at different time lags and locations.
Our findings suggest that climatic factors are among the major determinants of malaria transmission in the highlands of Plateau state except in Jos-North LGA where the low model deviance explained (35.4%) could mean that there are other important factors driving malaria transmission in the area other than climatic factors.
疟疾是一种严重疾病，在尼日利亚许多地区仍是公共卫生问题。
本研究旨在描述疟疾传播趋势，并分析气候因素对尼日利亚中部高原州高地疟疾传播的影响。
本研究为回顾性调查，使用了气候参数档案数据和疟疾医疗病例记录。1980年至2015年期间，从距离研究地点最近的气象站获取降雨、相对湿度和温度数据。2003年至2015年期间，从选定地方政府辖区（LGAs）的综合医院收集报告的疟疾病例数据。使用广义相加模型对疟疾发病率随时间的趋势进行建模，并分析其与气候因素的滞后关联。
结果显示，所有研究地区的疟疾发病率均呈现显著的周期性趋势（<0.001）。每月疟疾病例与月平均温度、降雨量和相对湿度之间的关联在不同时间滞后和地点均呈现显著关联。
我们的研究结果表明，气候因素是高原州高地疟疾传播的主要决定因素之一，但在乔斯北区LGAs除外，该地区较低的模型偏差解释率（35.4%）可能意味着除气候因素外，还有其他重要因素推动该地区的疟疾传播。
