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基于模型的保护耕作对当地气候的生物物理影响。

Modelled biophysical impacts of conservation agriculture on local climates.

机构信息

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Oct;24(10):4758-4774. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14362. Epub 2018 Jul 18.

Abstract

Including the parameterization of land management practices into Earth System Models has been shown to influence the simulation of regional climates, particularly for temperature extremes. However, recent model development has focused on implementing irrigation where other land management practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) has been limited due to the lack of global spatially explicit datasets describing where this form of management is practiced. Here, we implement a representation of CA into the Community Earth System Model and show that the quality of simulated surface energy fluxes improves when including more information on how agricultural land is managed. We also compare the climate response at the subgrid scale where CA is applied. We find that CA generally contributes to local cooling (1°C) of hot temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions where it is practiced, while over tropical locations CA contributes to local warming (1°C) due to changes in evapotranspiration dominating the effects of enhanced surface albedo. In particular, changes in the partitioning of evapotranspiration between soil evaporation and transpiration are critical for the sign of the temperature change: a cooling occurs only when the soil moisture retention and associated enhanced transpiration is sufficient to offset the warming from reduced soil evaporation. Finally, we examine the climate change mitigation potential of CA by comparing a simulation with present-day CA extent to a simulation where CA is expanded to all suitable crop areas. Here, our results indicate that while the local temperature response to CA is considerable cooling (>2°C), the grid-scale changes in climate are counteractive due to negative atmospheric feedbacks. Overall, our results underline that CA has a nonnegligible impact on the local climate and that it should therefore be considered in future climate projections.

摘要

将土地管理实践的参数化纳入地球系统模型已被证明会影响区域气候的模拟,特别是对温度极值的模拟。然而,最近的模型开发侧重于实施灌溉,而其他土地管理实践(如保护性农业)的实施受到限制,因为缺乏描述这种管理方式实施地点的全球空间明确数据集。在这里,我们将 CA 的表示形式实现到共同体地球系统模型中,并表明在包括更多关于农业土地管理方式的信息时,模拟表面能量通量的质量会得到改善。我们还比较了在子网格尺度上应用 CA 的气候响应。我们发现,CA 通常会导致中纬度地区热极端温度局部降低(约 1°C),而在热带地区,由于蒸散变化主导增强地表反照率的影响,CA 会导致局部变暖(约 1°C)。特别是,蒸散在土壤蒸发和蒸腾之间的分配变化对于温度变化的符号至关重要:只有当土壤水分保持和相关的增强蒸腾足以抵消减少土壤蒸发的变暖时,才会发生冷却。最后,我们通过比较当前 CA 范围的模拟和扩展到所有适宜作物区域的 CA 的模拟,来研究 CA 的气候变化缓解潜力。在这里,我们的结果表明,尽管 CA 对局部温度的响应相当大(>2°C),但由于大气负反馈,网格尺度的气候变化变化是相反的。总的来说,我们的结果强调了 CA 对当地气候有不可忽视的影响,因此应在未来的气候预测中加以考虑。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7229/6175211/2c5d1057dbab/GCB-24-4758-g001.jpg

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