Smith Pete, Martino Daniel, Cai Zucong, Gwary Daniel, Janzen Henry, Kumar Pushpam, McCarl Bruce, Ogle Stephen, O'Mara Frank, Rice Charles, Scholes Bob, Sirotenko Oleg, Howden Mark, McAllister Tim, Pan Genxing, Romanenkov Vladimir, Schneider Uwe, Towprayoon Sirintornthep, Wattenbach Martin, Smith Jo
School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2008 Feb 27;363(1492):789-813. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2184.
Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth's land surface. Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or source for CO2, but the net flux is small. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils. Lower, but still significant mitigation potential is provided by water and rice management, set-aside, land use change and agroforestry, livestock management and manure management. The global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be approximately 5500-6000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1, with economic potentials of approximately 1500-1600, 2500-2700 and 4000-4300Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at carbon prices of up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively. In addition, GHG emissions could be reduced by substitution of fossil fuels for energy production by agricultural feedstocks (e.g. crop residues, dung and dedicated energy crops). The economic mitigation potential of biomass energy from agriculture is estimated to be 640, 2240 and 16 000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at 0-20, 0-50 and 0-100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively.
农业用地占地球陆地面积的37%。农业分别占全球人为甲烷和一氧化二氮排放量的52%和84%。农业土壤也可能是二氧化碳的汇或源，但净通量很小。许多农业实践都有可能减少温室气体排放，其中最显著的是改善农田和牧场管理以及恢复退化土地和耕种有机土壤。水和水稻管理、休耕、土地利用变化和农林业、牲畜管理和粪便管理也具有较低但仍很可观的减排潜力。考虑到所有气体，到2030年农业的全球技术减排潜力（不包括生物质能的化石燃料抵消量）估计约为5500-6000百万吨二氧化碳当量/年，在碳价格分别高达20美元/吨二氧化碳当量、50美元/吨二氧化碳当量和100美元/吨二氧化碳当量时，经济潜力分别约为1500-1600百万吨二氧化碳当量/年、2500-2700百万吨二氧化碳当量/年和4000-4300百万吨二氧化碳当量/年。此外，通过用农业原料（如作物残渣、粪便和专用能源作物）替代化石燃料用于能源生产，可以减少温室气体排放。农业生物质能源的经济减排潜力在碳价格为0-20美元/吨二氧化碳当量、0-50美元/吨二氧化碳当量和0-100美元/吨二氧化碳当量时，分别估计为640百万吨二氧化碳当量/年、2240百万吨二氧化碳当量/年和16000百万吨二氧化碳当量/年。
