Safety and Security Science Group, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
Hydrogen Safety Engineering and Research Centre (HySAFER), Ulster University, UK.
J Environ Manage. 2018 Oct 1;223:433-443. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.062. Epub 2018 Jun 26.
Despite frequent occurrence of wildfires around the world, the role of wildfires has rarely been taken into account in risk assessment of process plants in wildlands, especially that large inventory of flammable petroleum products in contact with the heat of wildfire can lead to severe domino effects. We have developed a dynamic risk assessment framework by integrating available models of fire spread and domino effect analysis with online maps of wildfire characteristics such as ignition probability and heat intensity to investigate the impact of wildfires on oil facilities. The framework is modular, so one can readily enhance its accuracy by replacing the current techniques with more sophisticated ones. The application of the methodology is demonstrated on an oil terminal.
尽管世界各地经常发生野火，但在评估野地中工厂的风险时，野火的作用却很少被考虑在内，尤其是大量易燃石油产品与野火的热量接触会导致严重的多米诺骨牌效应。我们已经开发了一种动态风险评估框架，该框架通过将现有的火灾蔓延模型和多米诺效应分析与野火特征的在线地图（如点火概率和热量强度）相结合，来研究野火对石油设施的影响。该框架是模块化的，因此可以通过用更复杂的技术替换当前技术来轻松提高其准确性。该方法的应用在一个石油码头进行了演示。
