The W. A. Franke College of Business, Northern Arizona University, 20 W. McConnell Drive, NAU Box 15066 Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5066, USA.
Department of Economics, Arizona State University and NBER, Main Campus, PO BOX 879801, Tempe, AZ 85287-9801, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2018 Oct 1;223:537-544. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.022. Epub 2018 Jun 27.
Previous studies have used national data to demonstrate that higher annual temperatures negatively affect economic output and growth. Yet, annual temperatures and productivity can also vary greatly across space within countries. With this in mind, we revisit the relationship between temperature and economic growth using subnational short panel data for 10,597 grid cells across the terrestrial Earth. Our estimates from fitting a quadratic model to the data imply that cell-level economic growth in countries with below-median per-capita incomes is concave in temperature, with a maximum at about 16 °C. Our findings suggest that even with similar economic development within a country, climate vulnerability can vary at the regional level. Furthermore, as soon as we take into account the nonlinear relationship between temperatures and economic growth within countries, the impacts of temperature increases are found to be larger, compared to those that disregard such within-country heterogeneity.
先前的研究利用国家数据表明，较高的年度温度会对经济产出和增长产生负面影响。然而，在国家内部，年度温度和生产力也会在空间上有很大的差异。考虑到这一点，我们利用跨越地球陆地的 10597 个网格单元的国家以下短面板数据，重新审视了温度与经济增长之间的关系。我们对数据进行二次模型拟合的估计表明，在人均收入低于中位数的国家，细胞级经济增长与温度呈凹形关系，在约 16°C 时达到最大值。我们的研究结果表明，即使在一个国家内有类似的经济发展，气候脆弱性也可能在区域层面上有所不同。此外，一旦我们考虑到国家内部温度与经济增长之间的非线性关系，就会发现与那些不考虑这种国家内异质性的关系相比，温度升高的影响更大。
