Yang Si-Xu, Ma Yu-Xia, Zhou Jian-Ding, Zhou Ji
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health in Shanghai, Shanghai 200030, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2018 Apr 8;39(4):1552-1559. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.201705168.
This study discusses the changes in the daily average concentrations of the main air pollutants, such as PM, PM, O, and NO, in Shanghai, and the effects of air pollution on cold in Shanghai. For this study, data on air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the number of daily hospital visits from cold in Shanghai were collected from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. Using the time series Poisson semi-parametric generalized additive model, and controlling for the long-term trend, "week" effect, and meteorological factors by smoothing the spline function, the exposure-response relationship between air pollution and human health in Shanghai was analyzed. The study sets up the model according to age, evaluating the impact and the lag effect of air pollution on the number of daily hospital visits. Results show that when PM, NO, O, and PM increase by an IQR, the relative risk of cold disease is 1.0240 (1.0233-1.0246), 1.0206 (1.0201-1.0212), 0.9393 (0.9384-0.9402), and 1.0080 (1.0069-1.0086), and when PM, NO, O, and PM increase by 10 μg·m, the daily hospital visits increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, -2.0%, and 0.2%. In the multi-polluted model, the results of NO and PM are basically lower compared to the results of the single-pollutant model, the results of PM and Oare higher. Air pollution in Shanghai has an impact on the incidence of cold disease.
本研究探讨了上海市主要空气污染物（如PM、PM、O和NO）的日平均浓度变化，以及空气污染对上海感冒的影响。本研究收集了2008年1月1日至2010年12月31日期间上海市空气污染物、气象因素以及感冒日就诊人数的数据。利用时间序列泊松半参数广义相加模型，并通过样条函数平滑控制长期趋势、“周”效应和气象因素，分析了上海空气污染与人体健康之间的暴露-反应关系。该研究按年龄建立模型，评估空气污染对每日就诊人数的影响及滞后效应。结果显示，当PM、NO、O和PM增加一个四分位数间距时，感冒疾病的相对风险分别为1.0240（1.0233 - 1.0246）、1.0206（1.0201 - 1.0212）、0.9393（0.9384 - 0.9402）和1.0080（1.0069 - 1.0086），当PM、NO、O和PM每增加10μg·m时，每日就诊人数分别增加0.5%、1.0%、 - 2.0%和0.2%。在多污染物模型中，NO和PM的结果与单污染物模型相比基本较低，PM和O的结果较高。上海的空气污染对感冒疾病的发病率有影响。
