Centre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom.
The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.
J Glob Health. 2018 Jun;8(1):010804. doi: 10.7189/jogh.08.010804.
BACKGROUND: Cataract is the second leading cause of visual impairment and the first of blindness globally. However, for the most populous country, China, much remains to be understood about the scale of cataract and cataract blindness. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of cataract and cataract blindness in China at both the national and subnational levels, with projections till 2050. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase, and Medline were searched using a comprehensive search strategy to identify all relevant articles on the prevalence of cataract or cataract blindness in Chinese population published from January 1990 onwards. We fitted a multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression model to estimate the prevalence of cataract, and a random-effects meta-analysis model to pool the overall prevalence of cataract blindness. The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) data were used to estimate and project the number of people with cataract and cataract blindness from 1990 to 2050. According to different demographic and geographic features in the six geographic regions in China, the national numbers of people with cataract in the years 2000 and 2010 were distributed to each region. RESULTS: In males, the prevalence of any cataract (including post-surgical cases) ranged from 6.71% (95% CI = 5.06-8.83) in people aged 45-49 years to 73.01% (95% CI = 65.78-79.2) in elderly aged 85-89 years. In females, the prevalence of any cataract increased from 8.39% (95% CI = 6.36-10.98) in individuals aged 45-49 years to 77.51% (95% CI = 71.00-82.90) in those aged 85-89 years. For age-related cataract (ARC, including post-surgical cases), in males, the prevalence rates ranged from 3.23% (95% CI = 1.51-6.80) in adults aged 45-49 years to 65.78% (95% CI = 46.72-80.82) in those aged 85-89 years. The prevalence of ARC in females was 4.72% (95% CI = 2.22-9.76) in the 45-49 years age group and 74.03% (95% CI = 56.53-86.21) in the 85-89 years age group. The pooled prevalence rate of cataract blindness (including post-surgical cases) by best corrected visual acuity (BCVA)<0.05 among middle-aged and older Chinese was 2.30% (95% CI = 1.72-3.07), and those of cataract blindness by BCVA<0.10 and cataract blindness by presenting visual acuity (PVA)<0.10 were 2.56% (95% CI = 1.94-3.38) and 4.51% (95% CI = 3.53-5.75) respectively. In people aged 45-89 years, the number of any cataract cases was 50.75 million (95% CI = 42.17-60.37) in 1990 and 111.74 million (95% CI = 92.94-132.84) in 2015, and that of ARC rose from 35.77 million (95% CI = 19.81-59.55) in 1990 to 79.04 million (95% CI = 44.14-130.85) in 2015. By 2050, it is projected that the number of people (45-89 years of age) affected by any cataract will be 240.83 million (95% CI = 206.07-277.35), and that of those with ARC will be 187.26 million (95% CI = 113.17-281.23). During 2000 and 2010, South Central China consistently owed the most cases of any cataract, whereas Northwest China the least. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of cataract and cataract blindness in China was unmasked. In the coming decades, cataract and cataract blindness will continue to be a leading public-health issue in China due to the ageing population. Future work should be prioritized to the promotion of high-quality epidemiological studies on cataract.
背景:白内障是全球第二大致盲原因,也是失明的首要原因。然而,对于人口最多的中国来说,对于白内障和白内障致盲的规模仍有许多需要了解的地方。我们旨在调查中国在国家和次国家层面的白内障和白内障致盲的流行情况,并预测到 2050 年的情况。
方法:在这项系统评价和荟萃分析中,我们在中国国家知识基础设施(CNKI)、万方、中国生物医学文献数据库(CBM-SinoMed)、PubMed、Embase 和 Medline 上使用全面的搜索策略,以确定自 1990 年以来发表的关于中国人群白内障患病率的所有相关文章。我们使用多水平混合效应荟萃回归模型来估计白内障的患病率,并使用随机效应荟萃分析模型来汇总白内障致盲的总体患病率。联合国人口司(UNPD)的数据用于估计和预测 1990 年至 2050 年白内障和白内障致盲人数。根据中国六个地理区域不同的人口和地理特征,2000 年和 2010 年全国白内障患者人数分配到各区域。
结果:在男性中,任何白内障(包括手术后病例)的患病率从 45-49 岁人群的 6.71%(95%置信区间[CI]:5.06-8.83)到 85-89 岁老年人的 73.01%(95%CI:65.78-79.2)不等。在女性中,任何白内障的患病率从 45-49 岁人群的 8.39%(95%CI:6.36-10.98)上升到 85-89 岁人群的 77.51%(95%CI:71.00-82.90)。对于年龄相关性白内障(ARC,包括手术后病例),在男性中,患病率从 45-49 岁成年人的 3.23%(95%CI:1.51-6.80)到 85-89 岁人群的 65.78%(95%CI:46.72-80.82)不等。女性中 ARC 的患病率为 45-49 岁人群的 4.72%(95%CI:2.22-9.76),85-89 岁人群的 74.03%(95%CI:56.53-86.21)。通过最佳矫正视力(BCVA)<0.05 对中年及以上中国人的白内障致盲(包括手术后病例)的汇总患病率为 2.30%(95%CI:1.72-3.07),BCVA<0.10 和 PVA<0.10 的白内障致盲患病率分别为 2.56%(95%CI:1.94-3.38)和 4.51%(95%CI:3.53-5.75)。在 45-89 岁人群中,1990 年任何白内障病例数为 5075 万(95%CI:42.17-60.37),2015 年为 11174 万(95%CI:92.94-132.84),ARC 从 1990 年的 3577 万(95%CI:19.81-59.55)上升到 2015 年的 7904 万(95%CI:44.14-130.85)。到 2050 年,预计任何白内障患者(45-89 岁)将达到 24083.3 万(95%CI:20607.0-27735.0),ARC 患者将达到 18726.2 万(95%CI:11317.0-28123.0)。在 2000 年和 2010 年期间,中南地区一直是白内障患者人数最多的地区,而西北地区则最少。
结论:揭示了中国白内障和白内障致盲的流行情况。在未来几十年,由于人口老龄化,白内障和白内障致盲将继续成为中国主要的公共卫生问题。未来的工作应优先进行高质量的白内障流行病学研究。
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