CWI, Amsterdam 1098 XG, Netherlands.
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, USA.
Phys Rev Lett. 2018 Jun 22;120(25):258301. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.258301.
We model power grids transporting electricity generated by intermittent renewable sources as complex networks, where line failures can emerge indirectly by noisy power input at the nodes. By combining concepts from statistical physics and the physics of power flows and taking weather correlations into account, we rank line failures according to their likelihood and establish the most likely way such failures occur and propagate. Our insights are mathematically rigorous in a small-noise limit and are validated with data from the German transmission grid.
我们将传输间歇性可再生能源电力的电网建模为复杂网络，其中线路故障可以通过节点处的噪声电力输入间接出现。通过结合统计物理学和电力流物理学的概念，并考虑天气相关性，我们根据线路故障的可能性对其进行排序，并确定最可能的故障发生和传播方式。我们的见解在小噪声限制下具有严格的数学严谨性，并通过德国传输电网的数据进行了验证。
